Net migration to UK drops sharply to 431,000 in 2024

NET migration to the UK dropped to 431,000 in 2024, down from 860,000 in the year to December 2023, according to new estimates released on Thursday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The drop is the largest since the Covid pandemic and reflects changes to work and study visa rules.

"Long-term net migration is down by almost 50 per cent," the ONS said. "We are seeing reductions in people arriving on work- and study-related visas, and an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased."

The figures also showed that immigration from non-EU+ countries had declined. The term ‘non-EU+’ refers to countries outside the EU as well as Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Recent years have seen high numbers of arrivals from countries such as India, Nigeria and Pakistan.

Net migration had peaked at 906,000 in the year to June 2023. The latest fall of 297,000 comes in the year that included the first six months of the Labour government under prime minister Keir Starmer, who took office in July 2024.

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The ONS noted that fewer people were arriving on work and study visas, following rule changes aimed at reducing arrivals. The previous Conservative government had tightened visa conditions, including higher salary thresholds and restrictions on family members joining migrants.

Starmer, who earlier in May said he would reduce migration over the next four years, had announced new immigration policies including a cut in overseas care workers, a longer qualifying period before migrants can settle, and new powers to deport foreign criminals.

The drop in net migration is expected to offer some political relief to Starmer amid pressure from the anti-immigration Reform UK party, which made gains in recent local elections.

Thinktank British Future said the figures would surprise most of the public. Citing new Focaldata research, it said only 10 per cent of people in Britain had expected net migration to fall, while 58 per cent thought it would increase. Another 28 per cent expected it to stay the same.

Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said: “This significant fall in net migration will surprise 90 per cent of the public, who expected numbers to keep going up.

“So Keir Starmer is in the unusual position for a PM of having exceeded expectations on immigration – though largely by not cancelling measures introduced by his predecessors.

“That gives him an opportunity to take a more pragmatic approach, managing the pressures and keeping the gains of immigration – rather than competing in a political auction over which party can pretend to eliminate it.”

British Future said the lower numbers largely reflect the continuation of policy changes made by the previous administration. It added that further reductions of around 100,000 were expected based on measures outlined in the recent Immigration White Paper.

Focaldata’s previous research also showed a divided public opinion on immigration. About 50 per cent want immigration reduced, while 45 per cent prefer numbers to stay the same or increase.

Among those who want a reduction, 49 per cent cited irregular migration and small boat Channel crossings as their priority. Only 26 per cent said they wanted overall net migration numbers reduced.

When asked what types of immigration they would reduce, most people said they would not cut migration of workers such as doctors (77 per cent), care home staff (71 per cent), fruit pickers (70 per cent), catering staff (63 per cent), lorry drivers (63 per cent), and engineers (65 per cent). Two-thirds (65 per cent) also preferred not to reduce the number of international students.

Among people who voted Labour in 2024, 55 per cent preferred immigration numbers to remain the same or rise.