- Scientists say the June heatwave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.
- Nearly half of the European cities studied have recorded or are expected to record their highest late-June heat stress levels.
- Researchers warn that rising night-time temperatures are making heatwaves more dangerous for public health.
A new climate change study has concluded that the Europe heatwave sweeping across Western Europe would have been "virtually impossible" without human-caused global warming, adding fresh evidence that rising temperatures are making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense.
The analysis, carried out by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, found that climate change has dramatically increased the likelihood of the record-breaking June heatwave. Researchers said exceptionally hot nights during the current event are now more than 100 times more likely than they were just two decades ago.
The findings come after soaring temperatures disrupted daily life across several European countries. Britain recorded its hottest June day on record, while the wider heatwave has been linked to deaths, power outages and the temporary closure of schools and cultural landmarks in parts of Europe.
A heatwave unlike those of the past
According to the WWA analysis, this is the most severe June heatwave ever recorded across the region studied.
Researchers estimated that a similar event in June 1976 would have been around 3.5C cooler during the day. Even compared with the devastating European heatwave of 2003, the current episode would still have been around 2C hotter, highlighting how rapidly temperatures have risen over recent decades.
The study found that around 45 per cent of more than 800 European cities analysed have recorded, or are expected to record, their highest levels of late-June heat stress. Heat stress occurs when the body can no longer cool itself effectively through sweating, increasing the risk of heat exhaustion, heatstroke and other serious health complications.
Scientists also pointed to unusually warm nights as a growing concern. In parts of France, overnight temperatures have remained above 20C for more than a week, a threshold known as a "tropical night". Some areas have recorded minimum temperatures close to 30C, reducing the body's ability to recover after extreme daytime heat.
Scientists warn more extremes lie ahead
The WWA said the current heatwave is consistent with years of scientific evidence showing that greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil and gas are increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme heat.
The World Meteorological Organization estimates that the Earth's average temperature is now around 1.4C above pre-industrial levels.
Theodore Keeping, lead author of the study from Imperial College London, reportedly said the June heatwave would not have been possible without climate change. His colleague Clair Barnes, a research associate in extreme weather at the university, reportedly said that unless global warming slows, record temperatures are likely to be exceeded more frequently.
WWA co-founder Friederike Otto reportedly said the weather pattern itself was not unusual, but the temperatures associated with it were. She also warned that the combination of high temperatures and humidity is increasing the risk of dangerous heat stress across Europe.
The researchers found that the current heatwave was not driven by the El Niño weather pattern, suggesting that natural climate variability played little role in the event.
The report also highlighted the growing health risks linked to prolonged periods of extreme heat. Researchers referred to earlier scientific findings estimating that more than 60,000 people died from heat-related causes during a series of European heatwaves in the summer of 2022.
Europe remains the world's fastest-warming continent, and the researchers said reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be critical if future heatwaves are to become less severe.
