- The Met Office says current forecasts do not support widespread UK snow or a prolonged freeze.
- El Niño could increase the chances of wetter and stormier weather later in autumn and early winter.
- The coming days are expected to bring rain, showers, stronger winds and some cooler spells.
The UK weather forecast snow claims circulating online have been challenged by the Met Office, which has rejected suggestions that Britain is about to be hit by widespread snow, a major freeze or a “polar vortex”.
The forecaster said recent headlines about a “551-mile wall of rain and snow” and an imminent “polar vortex of snow and storms” were overly dramatic and did not reflect the current forecast.
The latest Met Office forecast shows a changeable and increasingly autumnal pattern, with rain, showers and stronger winds. Temperatures are expected to turn cooler after an unusually warm start to October, but there is no indication of a prolonged nationwide freeze.
Will it snow across the UK this week?
Not according to the current forecast.
The Met Office said there is no indication of widespread low-level snow across the UK in the short-range outlook.
Wednesday is expected to bring heavy rain across much of England and Wales, while Scotland and Northern Ireland will see sunny spells and showers. Temperatures will generally be close to, or slightly below, average.
Some colder conditions are possible, particularly overnight. Rural frost could develop in places, while showers could be heavy in parts of northern and north-western Britain.
But the forecaster said this is very different from a widespread or disruptive snow event.
“The current forecast does not support the suggestion that the UK is about to be ‘smashed’ by widespread snow associated with changes to the polar vortex,” the Met Office said in its assessment of recent weather headlines.
The current UK forecast describes Wednesday as turning cooler, with heavy rain moving east across England and Wales. Thursday is expected to be drier and brighter for many, although it will feel fresher, while Friday could bring further outbreaks of heavy rain.
What does El Niño mean for UK weather?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It can influence weather patterns around the world, but its effects vary significantly from one region to another.
The Met Office expects the current El Niño event to be particularly strong and has previously said it could increase the likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions in the UK during autumn, alongside a greater chance of windy weather later in the season.
However, El Niño does not determine individual weather events.
The Met Office said it could increase the likelihood of wetter, stormier and generally milder conditions in the UK during late autumn and early winter. Later in winter, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex could potentially increase the chances of sudden stratospheric warming events, which can in turn raise the possibility of colder weather.
But these are changes in probability rather than predictions that a particular snowstorm will hit Britain.
The Met Office said any potential polar-vortex effects associated with El Niño would relate to the end of winter, rather than meaning snow is about to arrive in specific parts of the UK.
Is a ‘551-mile wall of rain and snow’ heading for Britain?
The Met Office said bands of rain are indeed in the short-term forecast, but there is no “unbroken wall of rain and snow” covering the country.
The latest outlook instead points to a changeable autumn, with spells of rain, brisk winds, showers and cooler intervals mixed with drier and brighter periods. Southern and eastern areas are likely to have more opportunities for drier weather, while the west and north-west are more exposed to rain and stronger winds.
The longer-range forecast is similarly not pointing towards a nationwide freeze. From October 10 into the middle of the month, the Met Office expects Atlantic weather systems to bring periods of rain and strong winds, particularly in western and north-western areas, with occasional cooler spells.
Temperatures, however, are expected to be near or slightly above average overall for much of the period.
The message from the forecaster is therefore fairly straightforward: Britain is moving into more typical autumn weather, but the dramatic snow and freezing conditions suggested by some recent headlines are not the central themes of the current forecast.
