PEOPLE in England and Wales significantly overestimate the proportion of killers from minority ethnic backgrounds, while also overstating the number of foreign nationals in the prison population, a study by King’s College London has found.
A YouGov survey of 1,800 people found that respondents believed 55 per cent of convicted killers were from minority ethnic groups. The actual figure is 35 per cent.
Respondents also underestimated the proportion of homicides involving white offenders. They estimated that white people accounted for 45 per cent of homicide convictions, compared with the actual figure of 64 per cent.
According to the research, the gap was widest among Reform UK supporters. They believed that 70 per cent of killers were from minority ethnic backgrounds, 15 percentage points above the public estimate and 35 points higher than the actual figure.
The study was carried out as concerns about crime, immigration and ethnicity have become part of political debate, particularly among right-wing parties.
Prof Bobby Duffy of King’s College London said people’s views about crime were shaped partly by their concerns and by the information they encountered.
“There are two buckets of explanations for our misperceptions: how we think and what we’re told,” he said. People were more likely to notice and give greater weight to information that matched their existing concerns, Duffy said.
He added that Reform supporters’ greater concern about immigration and diversity could make them more likely to focus on crimes involving those groups. They could also be more exposed to media, social media and political messages highlighting such cases, he noted.
When people were asked about foreign national offenders, respondents estimated that foreign nationals made up 25 per cent of the prison population, more than twice the actual figure of 12 per cent. They also believed that foreign nationals were responsible for 30 per cent of sexual offences, compared with an actual figure of 15 per cent.
Again, Reform supporters gave the highest estimates, with half believing that sexual offences were committed by foreign nationals. This was 20 percentage points higher than the estimate given by Tory supporters.
The research also found the idea of “two-tier justice” has gained support, despite evidence not backing the claim that ethnic or religious minorities receive systematically different treatment in sentencing.
Overall, 52 per cent of respondents believed ethnic or religious minorities were sentenced differently from others. Of those, 29 per cent thought they received more lenient sentences, while 23 per cent believed they received harsher sentences.
Duffy warned that such beliefs could weaken trust in the justice system and lead to calls for changes that may not be needed or effective.
The study also found that age appeared to have a greater influence on people’s perceptions than ethnicity. Gen Z (born between 1997 and 2012) respondents estimated that white people accounted for 58 per cent of homicide convictions, while baby boomers (people born between 1946 and 1964) put the figure at 35 per cent. White and non-white respondents gave almost identical estimates.
People also overestimated their chances of becoming victims of crime. The median estimate was 27 per cent, compared with 9.7 per cent of people who experienced crime between 2024 and 2025.
