- Trump says Russia will supply millions of tonnes of diesel to US and global markets.
- Zelensky condemned the deal as an investment in a war that should be ended.
- Analysts question whether the additional supplies will significantly reduce fuel prices.
US President Donald Trump has struck a deal with Russia to bring diesel into American and global markets, drawing an angry response from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who warned that easing sanctions could help Moscow prolong its war against Ukraine.
Trump announced the agreement after a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and one million tonnes shortly afterwards.
He also said a further three million tonnes could be delivered within a short period, depending on the condition of Russia’s refineries, many of which have been targeted by Ukrainian attacks.
The US Treasury subsequently issued a temporary licence allowing Russian-origin diesel to be sold, delivered and imported into the US until April 7, 2027. The measure marks a significant shift in Washington’s approach to restricting Russian energy exports following the invasion of Ukraine.
But whether the agreement can deliver meaningful relief at petrol stations remains uncertain, while its political consequences could extend well beyond energy markets.
Why is Ukraine angry about Trump’s Russian diesel deal?
Zelensky accused Washington of giving Putin an economic advantage while Ukraine continues to defend itself against Russian attacks.
In a social media post, he described the agreement as “an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged”.
He warned that Russia would repay the concession with “further terror” and called on the US to take a stronger position in its dealings with Moscow.
“We count on America's fair support for our defence of life, for our defence of people in Ukraine – and on the United States having a correspondingly strong conversation with Russia. A strong one, not a weak one,” he wrote.
The concern is that allowing Russian diesel back into international markets could help Moscow generate revenue from energy exports, weakening the pressure that Western sanctions were intended to impose.
The timing has also raised questions. The announcement came as US, Ukrainian and European officials were preparing for further discussions aimed at ending the war.
Russia has faced mounting pressure on its refining industry after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes. The International Energy Agency has estimated that Russian diesel production has fallen by nearly 30 per cent.
Putin said Russia was willing to supply the US and international markets with oil and petroleum products. His envoy Kirill Dmitriev welcomed the agreement, saying: “Russia-US co-operation on diesel and energy will benefit the world.”
The UK government reiterated its support for Ukraine, saying it would continue working with international partners to provide military and financial assistance and maintain sanctions against Russia.
Will the deal lower US fuel prices?
That is less certain than Trump's announcement suggests.
The first shipment of more than 300,000 tonnes represents approximately 2.25 million barrels of diesel. Tim Armitage, investment strategist at Quilter Cheviot, said that was relatively small compared with US consumption.
He estimated that daily US diesel consumption was around 3.8 million barrels, meaning the initial supply would cover only a fraction of demand for a single day.
“So it won't make a material difference to pump prices in the US,” he said.
“Granted, there are then two more releases to come, but it does appear to be a slightly desperate move by President Trump to try to lower inflation ahead of the midterms.”
The American Automobile Association put the average US diesel price at $6.28 a gallon, down from a record $6.53 at the end of September. Prices have been pushed higher by disruption to global energy supplies, including the war involving Iran.
Trump has been under pressure to ease the cost of living ahead of the November midterm elections, when voters will decide whether Republicans retain control of Congress.
He has also backed the release of emergency oil stocks by major economies and considered other measures to reduce fuel costs. However, additional diesel supplies alone may not be enough to reverse the impact of disrupted shipping, reduced refining capacity and elevated crude prices.
Analysts have also questioned how quickly Russia can fulfil the promised volumes, given the damage to its refineries and domestic fuel shortages. The precise arrangements for supplying the diesel, including what Russia receives in return beyond the sanctions relief, remain unclear.
What does the deal mean for US sanctions on Russia?
The temporary Treasury licence permits certain transactions involving Russian-origin diesel, including its import into the US, until April 7, 2027. It does not mean that all sanctions against Russia have been lifted: restrictions on other Russian assets, including funds held in US financial institutions, remain in place.
Nevertheless, the move represents a notable reversal of efforts to restrict Moscow's energy revenues since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
It also creates a difficult diplomatic balance for Washington. The administration is seeking to lower fuel costs for American consumers while continuing to present itself as a participant in efforts to end the war.
Trump has argued that additional energy supplies will bring prices down quickly. But even if the promised diesel reaches international markets, the impact will depend on how much is delivered, when it arrives and whether it adds to overall supply or simply redirects fuel that would otherwise have gone to other buyers.
For Ukraine, the concern is that the immediate economic benefit to Russia could come at the expense of the wider sanctions campaign.
For American motorists, meanwhile, the central question remains whether the deal will provide lasting relief at the pump or prove too small to offset the wider energy shock.
