- OpenAI and Anthropic have both quietly started the process of going public.
- AI companies are burning through unprecedented amounts of cash to build infrastructure.
- Investors are beginning to ask whether the industry's sky-high valuations can last.
OpenAI's confidential filing for a US stock market listing may look like a routine corporate milestone. In reality, it could be a sign that the economics of artificial intelligence are entering a new phase.
The company behind ChatGPT confirmed on June 8 that it had submitted a confidential S-1 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, the first formal step towards an initial public offering. The announcement came just a week after rival Anthropic revealed it had done the same.
On the surface, both companies insist the timing is coincidental. OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman reportedly told CNBC there was no race to reach public markets first and that the company would list only when it made sense. But with two of the world's most valuable AI companies filing within days of each other, the move has inevitably raised questions about whether the industry's biggest players are seeking access to a shrinking pool of investor capital before market conditions become less favourable.
The filing arrives at a time when AI companies are spending money at a pace rarely seen in the technology industry.
Training advanced AI models requires enormous computing power, specialised chips and vast data centre networks. Those costs continue long after the models are launched, as millions of users generate fresh demand every day.
OpenAI's latest funding round valued the company at around £630 billion ($852bn), while Anthropic was recently valued at roughly £715 billion ($965bn). Despite those eye-watering figures, both businesses continue to consume significant amounts of cash.
OpenAI has reportedly told investors it expects infrastructure spending to run into hundreds of billions of pounds over the coming years. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimates that major technology companies including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta could collectively spend nearly £4 trillion ($5.3tn) on AI-related capital expenditure between 2025 and 2030.
Private investors have so far been willing to write increasingly larger cheques. However, even sovereign wealth funds, venture capital firms and strategic backers have limits. Public markets offer access to a far broader investor base and potentially deeper pools of capital.
That reality may explain why IPO discussions are gathering pace across the sector.
A race against the market clock
The timing is particularly notable because the backdrop is becoming more complicated.
For much of the past two years, investors have rewarded almost anything linked to artificial intelligence. Valuations have surged, funding has flowed freely and technology stocks have helped push markets to record highs.
Yet cracks are beginning to appear.
Recent US economic data has strengthened expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. Higher borrowing costs tend to hit growth companies hardest because much of their valuation is based on profits expected years into the future.
Analysts have also begun debating whether the massive investment flowing into AI infrastructure will ultimately generate returns large enough to justify current valuations.
That uncertainty is one reason some market observers believe companies are moving while investor enthusiasm remains strong.
Gil Luria, managing director at DA Davidson, reportedly told Reuters that OpenAI would not want public market capital to be exhausted by rival listings and large fundraising exercises elsewhere in the technology sector.
Anthropic's surprise filing may have sharpened those concerns. The company overtook OpenAI in private-market valuation following its latest funding round, underscoring how quickly competitive positions can shift in the AI industry.
More than an IPO
OpenAI's filing is not a commitment to list immediately. Confidential submissions often remain private for months while regulators review financial disclosures.
The company itself acknowledged that a listing may still be some way off, saying there were things it wanted to accomplish more easily as a private business.
At the same time, OpenAI appears to be preparing for greater financial flexibility. According to reports, the company is planning a tender offer that would allow employees to sell shares at its latest valuation, easing pressure for liquidity ahead of any public debut.
A public listing would also force OpenAI to reveal far more about its finances than it ever has before. Investors would gain their first detailed look at revenue growth, spending levels and the true cost of operating one of the world's most influential AI businesses.
For now, the filing offers only a glimpse of what may come next. But it also highlights a broader reality facing the industry.
The next battle in artificial intelligence may not be about who builds the smartest model. It may be about who can afford to keep building them.
