Immigration to drive UK population growth to 72.5 million by 2032: ONS

THE UK population is expected to grow to 72.5 million by mid-2032, up from 67.6 million in mid-2022, with net migration accounting for nearly all of the increase, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday.

The UK has seen record immigration levels in recent years, and the new projections could add to the ongoing debate on how public services will manage the increase and the role of foreign workers in the economy.

Successive governments, including prime minister Keir Starmer’s Labour administration, have pledged to reduce immigration. The issue has remained politically significant since the Brexit vote in 2016 and has contributed to the rise of the right-wing Reform UK party.

According to the ONS, net migration—the number of people arriving minus those leaving—is expected to contribute 4.9 million people to the population growth over the 10-year period.

The projections could benefit chancellor Rachel Reeves, as a larger population is expected to expand the economy and reduce government borrowing, the Resolution Foundation think tank said.

"A larger working-age population means a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts, which should deliver a fiscal boost of around £5 billion a year by the end of the decade," said Adam Corlett, principal economist at the foundation.

The ONS also said the number of births and deaths over the period from 2022 to 2032 is expected to be similar.

While births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are also expected to rise as those born in the post-1945 baby boom get older.

The projections assume long-term net migration of 340,000 per year from mid-2028 onwards, the ONS said. Net migration reached a record of over 900,000 in the year to June 2023.

ONS data published last year showed the UK population grew by 1 per cent annually to 68.3 million as of mid-2023, mainly due to immigration.

Post-Brexit visa changes led to a decline in migration from the European Union, while new visa rules resulted in a rise in immigration from India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, often to fill jobs in health and social care.