- Maersk warned rising oil costs could sharply increase pressure on global trade.
- The shipping giant said higher expenses may eventually be passed on to consumers.
- Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on supply chains and inflation fears.
The Iran war may have already rattled oil markets and global shipping routes, but one of the world’s biggest shipping companies believes the worst economic effects could still be ahead.
Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc warned on May 7 that the conflict has become a “new wake-up call” for global trade, with rising fuel prices, disrupted shipping routes and weakening consumer demand expected to create deeper pressure in the coming months.
Speaking after the Danish shipping giant released its first-quarter earnings, Clerc reportedly said the industry was now facing massive energy-related costs that companies would struggle to absorb on their own.
Here are five ways the Iran war could hit the global economy harder later this year.
1. Rising fuel costs may start pushing up prices everywhere
The biggest immediate pressure point remains oil.
The conflict in the Middle East sent crude prices surging after disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes for oil and gas supplies. Although Brent crude slipped to around £74 ($93) a barrel on hopes of a possible US-Iran peace deal, prices remain far above levels seen before the conflict began.
Clerc said Maersk alone could face roughly £400 million ($500 million) in additional monthly costs if oil continues trading near the £80 ($100) mark, according to a CNBC report.
For shipping companies, fuel is one of the biggest operating expenses. As those costs rise, businesses across supply chains may eventually pass them on to customers through higher prices on imported goods, transport and logistics.
The fear now is that inflation, which had started cooling in several economies, could rise again if energy prices remain elevated for a prolonged period.
2. Supply chains are once again under pressure
The war has also disrupted global shipping movements at a time when supply chains were only beginning to stabilise after years of pandemic-related shocks.
Around a week after the conflict began on February 28, Maersk suspended two major shipping routes linking the Middle East with Asia and Europe, citing safety concerns for vessels and crew.
The Strait of Hormuz remains close to standstill conditions, forcing shipping firms to reroute cargo and rethink logistics strategies. Longer routes mean higher fuel consumption, delays in deliveries and increased operating costs.
Maersk, often viewed as a barometer for global trade activity, warned that geopolitics is now becoming the dominant force shaping the shipping and logistics environment.
The company said the Iran war has added “another layer of uncertainty” to an already fragile global economy.
3. Consumers could eventually start cutting spending
One of the bigger concerns for businesses is not just rising costs, but what happens if consumers finally start pulling back spending.
Clerc reportedly questioned whether households would continue absorbing higher prices once the impact spreads through supply chains and reaches everyday goods and services.
If transport, fuel and import costs continue climbing, companies fear weaker consumer demand in the second half of the year. That could create a ripple effect across retail, manufacturing and shipping industries.
Maersk warned consumer confidence has already weakened since the conflict began, adding to concerns about slower trade activity later in 2026.
4. Shipping companies may struggle despite higher freight rates
At first glance, shipping disruptions can sometimes push freight prices higher and temporarily boost revenues for transport firms.
But the situation may not remain favourable if fuel costs continue climbing faster than freight earnings.
Maersk reported underlying EBITDA of roughly £1.4 billion ($1.75 billion) for the first quarter, down 35 per cent from a year earlier, while revenue slipped 2.6 per cent to about £10.3 billion ($13 billion).
The company said lower freight rates and higher operating costs weighed heavily on its ocean shipping division.
Its shares fell nearly 3 per cent after the earnings release on May 7.
5. Businesses are being forced to rethink global trade strategies
Beyond immediate shipping disruption, the conflict is also reviving broader concerns about how vulnerable global trade networks have become.
Maersk said the Iran war, combined with recent US tariff measures, is forcing businesses to rethink how they build supply chains and protect themselves from geopolitical shocks.
The company maintained its full-year outlook, saying global container demand could still grow between 2 per cent and 4 per cent if oil prices stabilise and the conflict eases soon.
But it also warned that risks remain tilted to the downside and that “more adverse outcomes cannot be ruled out”.
For now, much of the global economy appears to be waiting to see whether the conflict cools — or whether the real economic fallout is only just beginning.
