- Food experts warned the UK is becoming increasingly vulnerable to supply chain and climate-related food shocks.
- Heatwaves, drought conditions and the Iran conflict are pushing up pressure on crops, fuel and fertiliser costs.
- Food prices are projected to be around 50 per cent higher by November than they were five years ago.
Britain is “sleepwalking into a food crisis”, according to a group of food policy experts who say climate shocks, inflation and the economic fallout from the Iran conflict are creating growing risks for the country’s food supply and prices.
The warning comes as farmers across the UK struggle through a prolonged heatwave following one of the driest springs in recent years, with concerns mounting over lower crop yields, livestock stress and increasing wildfire risks.
Industry experts say the economic impact on farming and food production could run into hundreds of millions of pounds if extreme weather conditions continue through the summer.
At the same time, food inflation pressures are expected to intensify further as fuel and fertiliser prices rise because of ongoing disruption linked to the conflict in West Asia and shipping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts now expect food prices to be roughly 50 per cent higher by November than they were five years ago.
Farmers face pressure from both climate and costs
A coalition of food experts and former retail and farming executives has written to ministers urging the government to urgently rethink its national food strategy to prepare for a future shaped by hotter temperatures, volatile weather and supply chain instability.
Among the signatories are Mike Barry, Anna Taylor and Lee Stiles.
The group called for stronger domestic food production, improved resilience against global supply shocks and better access to affordable and healthy food across the country.
Tim Lang reportedly criticised the government’s current approach as “business as usual”, warning ministers were failing to grasp how quickly food security risks are escalating.
Lang reportedly said climate heating, geopolitical tensions and cost-of-living pressures were combining to create what he described as a “new normal” of instability.
The pressure is already visible across parts of British agriculture.
Farmers are reporting growing concerns over crops struggling in high temperatures, while livestock producers are dealing with heat stress and rising operational costs.
The latest heatwave has also revived fears of major wildfires affecting farmland and rural infrastructure during the summer months.
Food security moves up the political agenda
The warnings come as wider debates grow around whether food security should now be treated as a national security issue.
Richard Nugee reportedly said the UK faces growing risks from global food supply disruptions caused by war, climate-related crop failures and import dependency.
He reportedly warned that prolonged shortages or sharp food price rises could increase public frustration and place greater pressure on governments.
The concerns are also being echoed by climate advisers.
The Climate Change Committee recently advised ministers not to allow domestic food production to fall below 60 per cent of national food demand.
The committee warned climate-related damage to UK food production could rise to more than £2 billion annually during the 2030s, compared with roughly £200 million currently.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently floated the possibility of voluntary price caps on staple foods, although supermarkets and opposition parties quickly pushed back against the idea.
Food analysts say the wider challenge facing Britain is no longer simply about inflation or supply chains alone, but about how climate change, geopolitics and economic pressures are increasingly colliding at the same time.
