EXIT POLLS on Wednesday (29) projected that Indian prime minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies could win two of four state elections, pointing to gains that would strengthen the party’s position across the country.
The BJP has won most state elections since the 2024 general election, when it lost its outright majority and relied on alliance partners to form a government.
The eastern states of Assam and West Bengal, the southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, along with the federally administered territory of Puducherry, are electing new governments. Voting ended on Wednesday. Ballots will be counted on May 4 and results announced the same day.
A BJP-led alliance, which has ruled Assam for the last 10 years, is projected to win a majority and return to power for a third term. Exit polls by Axis My India projected 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 for the Congress and its partners. People's Pulse forecast 68-72 seats for the NDA and 22-26 for the Congress bloc, while Matrize estimated 85-95 seats for the NDA and 25-32 for the Congress alliance. The Assam assembly has 126 seats, with a majority mark of 64.
In West Bengal, where the BJP contested against the ruling Trinamool Congress, exit polls showed mixed projections. People's Pulse forecast 177-187 seats for the Trinamool Congress and 95-110 for the BJP. Matrize projected 146-161 seats for the BJP and 125-140 for the Trinamool Congress, while P-Marq estimated 150-175 seats for the BJP and 118-138 for the Trinamool Congress. The state assembly has 294 seats, with a majority mark of 148.
Senior BJP leaders, including Modi, campaigned in West Bengal, focusing on what they described as illegal immigration from neighbouring Bangladesh and the economy.
In Tamil Nadu, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance is projected to win a second term. People's Pulse forecast 125-145 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for the AIADMK-BJP alliance and 18-24 for TVK. Matrize projected 122-132 seats for the DMK-Congress alliance, 87-100 for the NDA and 10-12 for TVK. The state assembly has 234 seats, with a majority mark of 118.
In Kerala, where the Communist Party of India (Marxist) leads the government, exit polls indicated a close contest. Axis My India projected 78-90 seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front, 49-62 for the Left Democratic Front and 0-3 for the NDA. People's Pulse forecast 75-85 seats for the UDF, 55-65 for the LDF and 0-3 for the NDA. Matrize estimated 60-65 seats for the LDF, 70-75 for the UDF and 3-5 for the NDA. The Kerala assembly has 140 seats, with a majority mark of 71.
In Puducherry, Axis My India projected 16-20 seats for the NDA, 6-8 for the DMK-Congress alliance and 2-4 for TVK in the 30-member assembly.
Polling in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu was conducted in a single phase, while West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29.
On April 9, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to polls, with Assam recording 85.38 per cent turnout and Puducherry 89.83 per cent. Tamil Nadu voted on April 23 and recorded 84.69 per cent turnout. In the first phase, West Bengal recorded 91.78 per cent turnout.
The BJP is seeking to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, where it is part of alliance governments, while the Congress is aiming to gain power in both. In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government, while in Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is looking to retain power against the AIADMK-BJP alliance and Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam led by actor-turned-politician Vijay. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress is seeking to retain power against the BJP.
Exit polls in India have a mixed record and can be inaccurate.
(With inputs from agencies)
