Highlights
- The 70th Ballon d'Or ceremony takes place on Monday 26 October at the London Palladium, the first time it has been held outside Paris
- Harry Kane is the odds-on favourite, with prices as short as 1/3, and would be the first Englishman to win since Michael Owen in 2001
- Kylian Mbappe's price has crashed from 14/1 to as short as 2/1, while Lamine Yamal has drifted from odds-on to around 9/2
- Ten PSG players are on the 30-man shortlist, which could split the vote
When is the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony, and why is it in London?
Who is favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
| Player | Club | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | 1/3 to 4/7 |
| Kylian Mbappe | Real Madrid | 2/1 |
| Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | 9/2 |
| Lionel Messi | Inter Miami | 40/1 |
| Rodri | Manchester City | 40/1 |
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 100/1 |
| Ousmane Dembele | PSG | 66/1 |
Prices vary by bookmaker and have been moving daily.
Why is Harry Kane the favourite?
The goals. No player in the world scored more club goals this season than Kane's 61 for Bayern Munich, according to Sports Illustrated, and he managed 73 in all for Bayern and England. Bayern won the Bundesliga and the German Cup, and reached the Champions League semi-finals, going out narrowly to eventual winners PSG. At the World Cup, Kane scored six times as England finished third. Eastern Eye previewed England's quarter-final against Norway.
Only four Englishmen have ever won the award. A fifth would be the first in 25 years. Kane, who recently equalled Peter Shilton's England record, said being in any conversation with Cristiano Ronaldo "means you're doing something special". The case against him is the one he has always faced: Bayern's dominance of Germany may count against him, and he did not win the Champions League or the World Cup this season, unlike PSG's players and Yamal.
Is Kylian Mbappe a genuine threat?
The market thinks so. His price shortened from 14/1 to as short as 2/1, according to Racing Post, after a big gamble. Mbappe scored 58 goals for Real Madrid and France, topped the scoring charts in La Liga and the Champions League, and won the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals. Mbappe has also been in the headlines over a reported interest from Liverpool. The obstacle is team success: Real Madrid did not win La Liga, which Barcelona took, and have not won the Champions League since 2024.
Kylian Mbappe of Real Madrid celebrates scoring his team’s second goal during the LaLiga EA Sports 2026/27 match between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid at Spotify Camp Nou on October 25, 2026 in Barcelona, Spain. Getty Images
What are Lamine Yamal's chances?
On paper, they are strong. The 19-year-old won La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain, and was odds-on to win at the start of October. But he has been a persistent drifter all month, out to about 9/2 and as big as 13/2 in places, as Kane's price hardened. Spain's World Cup triumph also underpins the case for Rodri, who is a 40/1 shot to win the award again, and the Spanish vote could split between them.
Lamine Yamal of FC Barcelona looks on during the LaLiga EA Sports 2026/27 match between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid at Spotify Camp Nou on October 25, 2026 in Barcelona, Spain. Getty Images
Can Lionel Messi win a ninth Ballon d'Or?
It would be remarkable. Messi, an eight-time winner whose last award came in 2023, is about 40/1 with Inter Miami and Argentina. He was a 50/1 shot when the World Cup began and shortened to 4/1 during the tournament, in which Argentina knocked England out in the semi-final. At 39, he is a long shot, but he has won it eight times before.
Could a PSG player win after back-to-back Champions League titles?
It is possible, but not likely. PSG retained the Champions League and have ten players on the shortlist, nine from the title-winning squad plus new signing Ferran Torres. The reigning winner, Ousmane Dembele, is 66/1, alongside Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, with Vitinha at 100/1. The problem is that there is no clear standout, and with so many team-mates, the vote is likely to be divided.
How does Ballon d'Or voting work?
A jury of 100 journalists, one from each of the top 100 countries in the FIFA world rankings, picks and ranks a top 10 from the 30 nominees. First place earns 15 points, then 12, 10, 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1. They are asked to weigh individual performances, team achievements and fair play. Ties are decided by first-place votes.
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? A prediction
Our prediction: Harry Kane. The goals tally is hard to argue with, and a split Spanish and PSG vote helps him. Mbappe is a credible second: his goals and Golden Boot give voters a strong individual case, but Real Madrid's lack of trophies counts against him. Yamal should finish third, with PSG's best-placed player, most likely Vitinha or Dembele, and Rodri or Messi completing the top five.
The risk is the World Cup. If voters weigh winning the tournament above everything else, Yamal could surge past both. Bookmakers' odds are a guide, not a result.
What other awards are presented on the night?
The Kopa Trophy for the best young player has Yamal among the nominees, alongside Pau Cubarsi, Lennart Karl and Warren Zaire-Emery. The Yashin Trophy for the best goalkeeper includes World Cup Golden Glove winner Unai Simon, David Raya and Thibaut Courtois. PSG were the men's Club of the Year in 2025. Elsewhere in the race, Haaland is a 100/1 outsider.
