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The tremors of the May 2026 elections could shift the tectonic plates of British politics. Attention will quickly turn to the Westminster aftershocks, including what the fallout of these national elections in Scotland and Wales alongside local elections across much of England, mean for Sir Keir Starmer’s future. Yet these seismic electoral upheavals merit scrutiny in their own right.

Wales is set for a once a century political earthquake. Labour has not just led the Welsh government since devolution began in 1999 - but won the most votes in every national election in Wales since 1922. Yet it now trails third, burdened by double incumbency in Cardiff Bay and Westminster, with the party watching the Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru and Reform’s pro-Brexit populists compete to top the polls. That contrast has polarised Wales - by age and geography - though a broad majority would prefer a government led by Plaid Cymru’s Rhun Ap Iowerth, with two-thirds hoping to keep Reform out.

Scotland could offer a rare pocket of political stability. John Swinney is the third Scottish first minister of a turbulent term after Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf, but may now secure a fifth term for his Scottish National Party. The trick to bucking the anti-incumbent trend has been to leverage his Edinburgh government being comparatively less unpopular than its London counterpart. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar sought to demonstrate his own distance from Westminster by calling for Starmer to resign, but his bid to lead Scotland, and become its second Asian First Minister, looks set to fall short.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap IorwerthGetty Images