POLLS opened across parts of England on Thursday for local elections that are expected to bring losses for both the Labour and Conservative parties and show gains for parties like Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
The elections are the first since Keir Starmer became prime minister and Kemi Badenoch took over the Conservatives after the party’s historic defeat last year.
A total of 1,641 council seats, six mayoralties and one parliamentary seat in Runcorn and Helsby are being contested.
For Reform UK, the vote presents a chance to expand local influence and challenge the two main parties ahead of the next national election expected in 2029. Led by Nigel Farage, Reform is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election and is expected to win about a quarter of the council seats. Betting odds also suggest it could take three mayoralties.
Farage said, “I encourage all of our supporters to go out and cause a political earthquake on Thursday. Your local council needs Reform.” He added that the Conservatives “stand for nothing” and are a party that will “fall off a cliff” after the results.
Reform UK, which gained five seats in the 2024 general election, had previously been seen as a one-issue party focused on immigration. Its success in local elections could help grow grassroots support before the national polls.
Labour won a parliamentary majority last year with just 33.7 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives received 24 per cent, their lowest share, securing only 121 seats in the 650-seat parliament. The Liberal Democrats won 61 more seats than the previous election, and the Greens increased their count to four.
Labour has been criticised over tax rises and welfare cuts since returning to power after 14 years in opposition.
The Runcorn by-election was triggered by Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigning after receiving a suspended jail sentence for punching a constituent. Labour had won the seat in 2024 with 53 per cent of the vote, compared to Reform’s 18 per cent.
A Labour spokesperson said, “The elections will be tough. Local elections are always challenging for incumbent governments. But of course, we're fighting for every vote.” Starmer also said it would be “tough” to win Runcorn again.
The Conservatives, who had won many of the seats last contested in May 2021 under then-prime minister Boris Johnson, are expected to lose heavily this time.
The party is being challenged by the Liberal Democrats in the south and Reform UK on the right.
Political scientists say the results could confirm that British politics is moving away from the traditional two-party system. “British politics appears to be fragmenting,” John Curtice wrote in the Telegraph, adding the elections “will likely be the first in which as many as five parties are serious players”.
Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, told AFP, “We will see losses from the Tories and Labour, but not equally.” He added, “Fragmentation is baked in.”
Opinion polls suggest public dissatisfaction with the two main parties amid weak economic growth, immigration concerns and poor public services.
A recent YouGov poll showed Reform UK leading with 26 percent, ahead of Labour at 23 percent and the Conservatives at 20 per cent.
Polling stations opened at 7am and were set to close at 10pm, with results expected to begin arriving early Friday and continue through the day.
(With inputs from AFP)
Emma Raducanu during a practice session REUTERS/Andrew Couldridge