Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Escalating Trade Tensions, Tighter Credit Markets to Slow World Trade Growth: WTO

Escalating trade tensions and tighter credit market conditions in important markets will slow world trade growth for the rest of this year and in 2019, World Trade Organisation (WTO) economists expect.

Global trade will continue to expand but at a more moderate pace than previously forecast, WTO said on Thursday (27).


WTO anticipates growth in merchandise trade volume of 3.9 per cent in 2018, with trade expansion slowing further to 3.7 per cent in 2019.

The new forecast for 2018 is below the WTO's April 12 estimate of 4.4 per cent but falls within the 3.1 per cent to 5.5 per cent growth range indicated at that time. Trade growth in 2018 is now most likely to fall within a range from 3.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent, WTO said in a release on Thursday (27).

Some of the downside risks identified in the April release have since materialised, most notably a rise in actual and proposed trade measures targeting a variety of exports from large economies.

The direct economic effects of these measures have been modest to date but the uncertainty they generate may already be having an impact through reduced investment spending. Monetary policy tightening in developed economies has also contributed to volatility in exchange rates and may continue to do so in the coming months.

WTO director-general Roberto Azevêdo said, “While trade growth remains strong, this downgrade reflects the heightened tensions that we are seeing between major trading partners. More than ever, it is critical for governments to work through their differences and show restraint. The WTO will continue to support those efforts and ensure that trade remains a driver of better living standards, growth and job creation around the globe.”

The updated trade forecast is based on expectations of world real GDP growth at market exchange rates of 3.1 per cent in 2018 and 2.9 per cent in 2019. This implies a ratio of trade growth to GDP growth of 1.3 per cent in both years.

Trade policy measures are far from the only risk to the forecast. Developing and emerging economies could experience capital outflows and financial contagion as developed countries raise interest rates, with negative consequences for trade. Geopolitical tensions could threaten resource supplies and upset production networks in certain regions, WTO said.

Finally, structural factors such as the rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from investment and toward consumption are still present and could weigh on import demand due to the high import content of investment. Overall, risks to the forecast are considerable and heavily weighted to the downside, WTO added.

More For You

Priyanka Chopra turns heads at brother’s wedding with £1.2M necklace

Priyanka Chopra shares a heartfelt moment with brother Siddharth Chopra on Sangeet night, dazzling in a stunning Rahul Mishra ensemble and exquisite Bvlgari jewelry.

Instagram/priyankachopra

Priyanka Chopra turns heads at brother’s wedding with £1.2M necklace

Priyanka Chopra, Bollywood’s reigning queen who’s taking the world by storm, is currently basking in the joy of her brother Siddharth Chopra’s wedding to actress Neelam Upadhyaya in India. The pre-wedding celebrations have been a glittering spectacle, and Priyanka, as always, has been the epitome of elegance and poise. At the Mehendi-cum-Sangeet bash, she was truly a vision in a bespoke floral masterpiece by designer Rahul Mishra, but it was her jaw-dropping jewelry that truly stole the spotlight.

Priyanka slipped into a strapless, gem-encrusted gown dripping with intricate floral patterns, exuding pure charm and sophistication. But the real showstopper? A breathtaking Bvlgari necklace that could make even the stars jealous. Crafted in pink gold and encrusted with diamonds, the necklace featured seven pear-shaped morganites, six cushion-cut mandarin garnets, and nine cabochon amethysts. Fashion experts over at Diet Sabya pegged its value at a jaw-dropping 11,04,346.44 pounds basically wearing a fortune around her neck!

Keep ReadingShow less
New body led by Sir Sajid Javid aims to amplify ‘unheard’ voices
Sajid Javid

New body led by Sir Sajid Javid aims to amplify ‘unheard’ voices

A NEW independent commission to improve cohesion would engage across all nations and regions of the UK by moving beyond Westminster-centric discussions and include more diverse voices, the director of British Future thinktank has said.

Sunder Katwala said building confidence across different groups will be a priority, as economic pressures and tensions due to Middle East conflict have polarised communities in the UK.

Keep ReadingShow less
Yarl’s-Wood-detention-centre-Getty

In 2018, she was detained at Yarl’s Wood detention centre after being told she would be deported. (Photo: Getty Images)

Court awards £100,000 to Pakistani asylum seeker over unlawful detention

A PAKISTANI asylum seeker has been awarded nearly £100,000 after a UK court ruled that she was unlawfully detained and subjected to breaches of her rights by the Home Office.

Nadra Almas, who arrived in the UK on a student visa in 2004, overstayed after her visa expired. She argued that returning to Pakistan would put her at risk as a Christian.

Keep ReadingShow less
Pakistan court gives unusual punishment to Youtuber Rajab Butt for owning lion cub

Pakistani zookeeper Mohammad Amir holds the confiscated lion cub at Lahore’s safari zoo last Tuesday (28)

Pakistan court gives unusual punishment to Youtuber Rajab Butt for owning lion cub

A PAKISTANI YouTube star who was gifted a lion cub on his wedding day avoided jail after promising a judge to upload animal rights videos for a year.

Rajab Butt has one of the largest online followings in south Asia, and his week-long nuptials in December were plastered over celebrity gossip websites.

Keep ReadingShow less
Theft and violence in retail shops hit record high in 2024

The Labour government has pledged to address the rise in retail crime through stronger measures to tackle shoplifting and anti-social behaviour

iStock

Theft and violence in retail shops hit record high in 2024

THEFT and violence against retail workers in Britain soared to record levels last year, driven partly by criminal gangs, and are “out of control”, according to a report last Thursday (30).

The British Retail Consortium's annual crime survey found that more than 20 million thefts occurred in the year to August 31, 2024 – an average of 55,000 a day – costing retailers £2.2 billion.

Keep ReadingShow less