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UK consumer confidence falls sharply ahead of budget

Household sentiment drops to lowest level since May as Britons brace for tough financial news ahead of Rachel Reeves' budget announcement

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The three-point fall in the Major Purchase Index to -15 is particularly concerning as Britain enters its busiest retail season

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Highlights

  • Consumer confidence fell to -19 in November from -17 in October.
  • Major purchases dropped three points to -15, tightening consumer spending.
  • Expectations for personal finances and the economy over the next year both fell sharply.
British consumer confidence slipped in November, falling short of expectations as households prepare for what many believe will be a challenging budget announcement.

The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer, Britain's longest-running measure of household sentiment, dropped to -19 from -17 in October. This marks the joint-lowest reading since May, though it remains above April's -23 following last year's household bill increases and US tariff announcements.

All five measures tracked by GfK declined compared to October. Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights director at GfK, described the results as "a bleak set of results as we head towards next week's Budget," noting that "the public is bracing for difficult news."


Household spending concerns

The three-point fall in the Major Purchase Index to -15 is particularly concerning as Britain enters its busiest retail season. The British Retail Consortium reported that consumer expectations for spending on goods and wider purchases both fell sharply in early November.

A separate survey by Opinium for the BRC found that net consumer expectations for the UK economy over the next three months fell to -44 per cent from -35 per cent in October, the lowest since April and the biggest month-on-month drop since that time.

Expectations for personal finances over three months also fell to -16 per cent from -11 per cent. BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson noted that "With Christmas fast approaching, public expectations of spending fell."

The Savings Index fell five points to 24, matching levels from a year ago. Looking forward, expectations for both personal financial situations and the general economic situation over the next 12 months have both declined significantly, suggesting households remain uncertain about what the budget will bring.

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Bank of England can tolerate inflation above 2 per cent target, Bailey signals

  • The Bank of England has indicated it may accept inflation above its 2 per cent target for a period.
  • Andrew Bailey warned that acting too aggressively could create unnecessary volatility.
  • Inflation is expected to rise further as higher costs filter through the economy.

The Bank of England has signalled it is prepared to tolerate inflation above its 2 per cent target for a period, as policymakers try to balance rising prices against signs of weakness in the UK economy.

Speaking in Reykjavik, Iceland, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that bringing inflation back to target immediately may not be the best approach while businesses and households continue to face economic uncertainty.

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