HOME SECRETARY Shabana Mahmood is under pressure to immediately enforce stricter immigration rules as large numbers of migrants approach the point at which they can settle permanently in Britain.
Government figures revealed that from next year about 270,000 migrants will qualify for indefinite leave to remain (ILR), the legal right to stay in the UK. The number is expected to rise sharply, reaching more than 600,000 by 2028, reported the Times.
Earlier this year ministers announced plans to extend the waiting time for ILR from five to ten years. However, it has not yet been decided whether these rules will apply to people already living in Britain.
The so-called “Boriswave” of migration followed the introduction of former prime minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit immigration system in 2021. After travel slowed during the pandemic, net migration rose to record levels, peaking at 906,000 in 2023. Last year 172,798 people were granted ILR, the highest number since 2010.
Chris Philp, the Conservative shadow home secretary, said the government must act now. “Over the next two or three years, very large numbers who came in 2021, 2022 and 2023 are all going to become eligible for ILR,” he told the Times. “The government should immediately extend the qualifying period for ILR to ten years, including people who are here already. ILR should also only be given to people who are making an economic contribution. Those who are not should be required to go home.”
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch admitted her party “got it wrong” under Johnson by allowing record migration levels and promised that the Conservatives would push for tighter rules than Labour.
But others argue that fairness must be shown to migrants who came under the existing system and paid high visa and health surcharge fees in expectation of settlement after five years.
Marley Morris, head of immigration at the Institute for Public Policy Research, said the government should avoid applying the new rules retrospectively. “It seems only fair that the ten-year waiting period should only apply to new arrivals,” Morris was quoted as saying. “This reflects a core British principle that policies should not apply backwards.”
The issue is particularly sensitive for more than 180,000 Hongkongers who arrived in the UK under the British National (Overseas) visa route after China imposed its national security law.
MPs from Labour and the Liberal Democrats have warned that changing the rules midway would betray commitments made to those families and risk giving propaganda victories to Beijing.
David Pinto-Duschinsky, Labour MP for Hendon, said many BNO holders were planning their futures in Britain. “They are absolutely committed to our country for the long term,” he said. “When they applied in 2021, it was on the basis of a five-year ILR period. Extending that now will create great uncertainty and hardship.”
Madeleine Sumption of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory noted that while not all temporary visa holders will stay, “we expect a large increase in settlement applications over the next few years” because many are extending their stays.
Meanwhile, migration across the Channel continues. On Tuesday (9), a woman died after a dinghy got into difficulty, with more than 200 people making the crossing that day. The total for this year has already passed 30,300.
