BRITAIN could soon reach a point where more people die each year than are born, raising questions about the future size of the population and the economy, a leading think tank has warned.
The Resolution Foundation said 2026 could mark a major shift, with deaths beginning to exceed births as a result of very low fertility rather than a rise in mortality, the Times reported.
Gregory Thwaites, research director at the foundation, said the change was being driven by “extremely low fertility and not especially high deaths”.
He added that this could “shift the conversation on migration away from arguments over whether the country is already ‘full’ and on to whether we want to address population decline”.
Official data shows the UK’s birthrate fell to 1.4 children per woman in 2024, down from about three in the 1960s. A rate of 2.1 is needed to keep the population stable.
For most of the 20th century, births outnumbered deaths, except in 1976 and during the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2024, the number of births only just exceeded deaths, and the think tank expects the gap to narrow further in 2025.
The Resolution Foundation said this could signal “the first year in a new era when deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin”, warning the gap could reach 100,000 a year by the mid-2040s.
Ruth Curtice, the foundation’s chief executive, said the shift would raise “questions about the future of our public services and the tax revenues needed to fund them in an ageing society”.
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the share of people reliant on the state is expected to rise from 31 per cent to 47 per cent over the next 50 years. This would place growing pressure on funding pensions, healthcare and welfare, as the working population shrinks.
Thwaites said the government was already “to a large extent, paying for older people”, with spending on children and working-age adults spread across fewer people.
Britain’s population has grown from 64.6 million in 2014 to 69.3 million in mid-2024, largely due to immigration. “All of the rise in population, if we want one in the future, will have to come from immigration,” Thwaites said.
