Labour's game plan for a Commons majority, to win people and places that were not already onside, was executed to perfection when reaching out.
By Sunder KatwalaJul 09, 2024
“Change”. That was what this election was about. Change, above all, from Rishi Sunak’s Conservative party. Fourteen million voted Conservative last time. Fewer than seven million did this time. The Conservatives lost a quarter of the vote to Reform on the right and another quarter to their left. The losses on either flank were enough for Sunak to lose power on their own. The combination was devastating. When it came to seats, the Conservatives lost a handful to the Greens and Reform – while many were swept away by the Lib Dems and Labour.
Labour won a crushing, yet curious victory. This 1997-style landslide of 412 seats was won on the lowest turnout since 2001 and a lower vote share than in 2005, or for any previous winning government. The new electoral map suggests Labour has a “coalition of everywhere” – making sweeping gains across Scotland, winning back every ‘Red Wall’ seat lost in 2019, having the most seats in every region and making once-in-a-century gains in Cheshire, Somerset and Norfolk.
Labour’s game plan for a Commons majority, to win people and places that were not already onside, was executed to perfection when reaching out. But the message – that the party was prioritising people and places who do not habitually vote Labour – was also heard by those who normally do.
Bristol Central ousted Labour to strengthen the Green voice – offering a cosmopolitan counterblast to Nigel Farage’s insurgency in Clacton on the Essex coast. Islington North chose to keep Jeremy Corbyn in parliament. Labour’s support was down among the under 40s, generally, but it fell most of all, by an average of 20 per cent, in constituencies where most voters are not white.
Most black voters still voted Labour, on a reduced turnout. But 2024 was the first modern general election when most British Asian voters did not vote Labour. Focaldata’s ‘How Britain voted’ analysis estimates that Labour averaged 43 per cent across Asian voters as a whole, with the Conservatives on 20 per cent, and around one in 10 for each of the Lib Dems (nine per cent), Greens (11 per cent) and independents (10 per cent). Voting patterns and the reasons for voters’ choices will clearly differ across different groups and generations.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party lost around half a million Muslim voters – usually to its left – as the ‘Gaza effect’ outstripped that after Iraq in 2005. Alongside Corbyn in Islington, Labour lost four more seats to independents in Birmingham, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Leicester South, all constituencies with large Muslim electorates. Yet the party still holds 46 of the 50 constituencies with the largest Muslim populations, as it held all of its east London seats, on reduced majorities, and gained three more, removing George Galloway in Rochdale and taking Peterborough and Wycombe from the Conservatives. Pro-Gaza candidates won less support in the south than in the Midlands and Yorkshire.
Meanwhile, Tory progress with Indian voters helped to make Harrow East the sole constituency in Britain where the Conservatives reached 50 per cent. The Church of England was once called ‘the Tory party at prayer’, but the Hindu temples of Harrow might now contest that title. There was even one Tory gain in Leicester East, on a night of 250 losses, as Shivani Raja, not yet 30, defeated both her Labour opponent and the constituency’s previous two Labour MPs. Keith Vaz came fifth with under 4,000 votes. Most Leicester voters found their veteran MP of three decades an unlikely champion of change.
Beyond Harrow and Leicester, Labour still holds 26 of the 28 Westminster constituencies where most voters are Asian. Its strong parliamentary presence offers Labour MPs opportunities to reconnect – but a governing party will struggle unless it roots those efforts with voters from specific groups in a more coherent approach to engage fairly and effectively in a diverse democracy with citizens from all minority and majority groups at the same time.
Sunder Katwala
There is more change in the Commons than ever before - 335 first-time MPs and 15 retreads outnumber the 300 re-elected incumbents. With 90 ethnic minority MPs, it is the first time the House of Commons reflects the diversity of the electorate. But there is less ethnic diversity in the Starmer government than in recent Tory administrations, with three ethnic minority ministers around the Cabinet table – David Lammy, Shabana Mahmood and Lisa Nandy – but nobody among the ministers of state, demonstrating a weak Labour pipeline from its strong parliamentary representation to bigger leadership roles.
The test of this new government will be delivering change. The Rwanda scheme was scrapped on day one. It has a mandate to build – favouring YIMBYS over NIMBYS – and promises to focus on growth, the NHS, energy and breaking down barriers to opportunity.
Labour should govern for its new “coalition of everywhere” – but the election tactics of the opposition made some people and places more equal than others. It will be important to rebalance that in government: a decade of national renewal depends on ensuring that everywhere really does mean everywhere.
THE US president Donald Trump and billionaire businessman Elon Musk went to war on social media.
Geert Wilders brought the Dutch government down after less than a year. Nigel Farage scrambled to hold his Reform team together.
Populism is a potent political force – but this week demonstrated the power of populist politicians to destabilise themselves too.
A Trump-Musk break-up always was more a question of when, than if, given the egos involved. Musk criticised Trump for his large spending bill. Trump threatened retribution against Musk’s companies – knocking a sixth off the Tesla share price. Musk declared Trump would not be president without his money. “Such ingratitude,” he tweeted. Trump acolyte Steve Bannon declared that he wanted to see Musk deported.
Musk is the Citizen Kane of our times. Even having the biggest media megaphone of the age and the highest spending did not guarantee political success. Trump came to see Musk as a political liability, as growing mistrust of the erratic billionaire’s motives offset the power of his money.
Musk is much more toxic in Britain than America. That story can be told in three words – familiarity breeds contempt. Most people had no firm opinion of Musk before he bought Twitter three years ago. YouGov shows disapproval of Musk rocketing from 60 per cent to 70 per cent to 80 per cent over the past year.
Most British Twitter/X users feel he made the platform worse. No other platform did so much to amplify the misinformation and hatred that fuelled the racist riots. Reform voters had been the only pro-Musk segment post-riots, but Musk’s attack on Farage for refusing to embrace Tommy Robinson split the Reform voters against him too.
Twitter/X is a tinderbox – the irresponsibility of its ownership exacerbates the real and present danger it presents during any future flashpoint. Yet Musk’s relationship with Trump was a significant impediment to tackling this. The platform uses its relationship with the Trump administration as a shield, threatening the UK or EU governments if they intervened. The Trump-Musk break-up could offer a new opportunity to at least make the platform uphold its duties to remove unlawful content. It is awash with rape and deportation threats – which the Twitter/X’s broken complaints system usually defends. That is a breach of the platform’s legal duties to provide an equal service to women or to ethnic minorities.
Nigel Farage and Zia Yusuf
The government recently announced its preferred candidate for the EHRC [Equality and Human Rights Commission] chair, Dr Mary-Ann Stephenson, who will now face parliamentary committee hearings. MPs should ask her whether the regulators’ legal powers apply when major platforms breach their duties.
The Washington social media war of words was in stark contrast to how Nigel Farage handled a twitterstorm within the Reform party.
His party chair, Zia Yusuf, declared it “dumb” for the party’s new MP to be asking the prime minister last week to ban the burqa. Yusuf then quit, declaring that trying to make Farage prime minister was no longer a good use of his time.
Farage gave a strikingly unTrumpian response. He empathised with the racism that Yusuf has faced as a Muslim public voice – though attributing much of it to ‘Indian bots’ deflected attention from the racism within the online right.
Farage’s emollience was rewarded. Yusuf declared his resignation was a mistake. He even implausibly claimed he would probably vote to ban the burqa himself. He told the Today programme that Reform would deport 1.2 million illegal migrants – a patently impossible pledge, even if there were that many people without secure legal status. Yusuf moving towards the party’s base might signal an ambition to be a Reform general election candidate.
Farage handled the crisis with skill: reinforcing his rejection of the overtly racist fringe, while hardening the party line on integration. Yusuf was not offered his old job as party chair back. He will volunteer, instead, as chair of a “DOGE” [Department of Government Efficiency] taskforce, named in tribute to Musk.
Reform have talked up Yusuf as having “professionalised” the party from a low base. Yet the DOGE initiative could hardly have begun more unprofessionally. Yusuf declared a ‘gotcha’ moment – claiming to have found Kent County Council spending £87 million a year on recruitment advertising. This was an absurdly false claim. Former Kent County Council leader, Roger Gough, pointed out that Yusuf had simply not understood the document. Kent was raising revenue by hosting a national framework, yet Yusuf had attributed any possible spending across England as profligacy by the council.
Whether his mistake was unwitting or more cynical, it resonated by confirming the biases of Reform’s supporters. How long it takes Yusuf to retract his mistaken Week One headline claim is now a simple good faith test of whether the DOGE process attempts to be at all credible.
Yusuf is presented by Reform as the professional among populists – that may demonstrate just how untested the party’s credentials to provide a potential government still are.
Sunder Katwala is the director of thinktank British Future and the author of the book How to Be a Patriot: The must-read book on British national identity and immigration.
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RANI MAKES RETURNDoctor Who acclaimed actress Archie Panjabi added to her diverse body of work by playing the iconic villain Rani in the recently concluded series of Doctor Who. She reprised the role originally portrayed by Kate O’Mara decades ago. Unfortunately, the series – available on BBC iPlayer – has been plagued by problems and suffered plummeting ratings, largely due to poor storylines. As a result, Archie and fellow cast member Varada Sethu are unlikely to return in future episodes.
Doctor Who
SINDOOR SHOW
Although many interpreted Aishwarya Rai Bachchan wearing sindoor at the recent Cannes Film Festival as a nod to India’s strike on Pakistan, it may have held a more personal meaning. After months of speculation about a possible split from Abhishek Bachchan, the gesture appeared to reaffirm that her marriage remains strong. It followed her recent Instagram post sharing a happy photo with her husband and daughter.
Aishwarya Rai Bachchan
DEY’S LONDON DATE
Brilliant Indian bassist Mohini Dey will deliver one of this summer’s standout concerts at the world-famous Ronnie Scott’s Jazz Club in London on July 9. She has been unstoppable in recent years – releasing an acclaimed self-titled album in 2023 and collaborating with music legends such as Zakir Hussain, Quincy Jones and AR Rahman, as well as touring North America with Willow Smith. The only female bassist in MusicRadar’s Top 10 Bassists of the 21st Century, she promises a unique musical experience.
Mohini Dey
SHIVALI CASTS A SPELL
After being one of the leading lights of devotional music, Shivali launched a bold new chapter in her artistic journey with the sold-out one-woman show Queen of Wands in London last month. This powerful solo performance brought her spoken word album to life through a dynamic blend of music, poetry, storytelling, immersive visuals and diverse themes. The British talent received a standing ovation for the thought-provoking and relatable show. Shivali said: “The experience was sublime, a different kind of feeling. I discovered I’m allegedly a comedian. It was one woman, but I had the backing of a team that rivals Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls. We are just starting conversations to take the show forward – and New York might be the first stop. More will be revealed soon.”
Queen of Wands
DISAPPEARING TV DRAMAS
While most people in India can cope with Pakistani celebrity social media accounts disappearing, the inability to watch drama serials from across the border has not gone down as well. The ongoing conflict has led to streaming platforms and YouTube channels blocking access to episodes of hit Pakistani dramas like Kabhi Main Kabhi Tum.
Although tech-savvy viewers have found ways around the restrictions, others are being forced to seek alternative shows to binge-watch.
Kabhi Main Kabhi Tum
DUD-LOOKING HISTORICAL
Riteish Deshmukh has unveiled the first-look poster of his passion project Raja Shivaji, which he is writing, directing, starring in, and releasing in multiple languages.
Unfortunately for him, the historical drama – based on the life of Maratha warrior Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj – features a line-up of past their-prime co-stars that audiences no longer seem interested in, including Sanjay Dutt, Abhishek Bachchan, Fardeen Khan, Genelia Deshmukh and Bhagyashree.
Deshmukh’s inexperience as a filmmaker will only add to the challenges Raja Shivaji faces ahead of its scheduled release on May 1, 2026. The only stone-cold certainty is that – like several recent Bollywood films about historical rulers – it will probably distort facts and lean heavily into jingoism.
Raja Shivaj
JINXED KAIF SISTER
After more than a decade of trying – and failing – to find her footing in Bollywood, it may be time for Isabelle Kaif to read the room. Her 2022 film Time To Dance vanished without a trace, and just as she was supposed to get a long-delayed ‘break’ with the clumsily titled Suswagatam Khushamdeed, that too disappeared. A lack of interest led to the film being quietly pulled from a recent cinema release without explanation. Perhaps the producers finally realised they were throwing good money after bad. Being Katrina Kaif’s younger sister might have opened a few doors for Isabelle, but it clearly has not been enough to turn her into a star. It may be time for her to reconsider her career path entirely – whether that means working behind the scenes or stepping away from Hindi cinema altogether. At the very least, she needs to make smarter choices and find better people to advise her.
Suswagatam Khushamdeed
COPYWOOD KHAN
Promotions for Sitare Zameen Par are in full swing ahead of its release on June 20. Lead star and producer Aamir Khan will be hoping Bollywood audiences avoid watching the Spanish original Campeones, which his comedy-drama is a remake of. That 2018 film – along with its 2023 American remake Champions – is available on streaming platforms.
Social media users have already begun drawing comparisons between the original and scenes from the trailer, which could make it harder for June’s big Bollywood release to succeed. This does not bode well for Khan, who has a lot riding on his not-so-original film after two major failures – Thugs of Hindostan and Laal Singh Chaddha.
Sitare Zameen Par
ARIJIT SET FOR STADIUM SHOW.
Tickets are now available for Arijit Singh’s upcoming concert at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on September 5. This landmark event will be the biggest show ever headlined by a South Asian artist outside India – a testament to the singer’s global appeal.
The unassuming star is looking forward to returning to London. He said: “I’m just an ordinary person who happens to sing, and I’m incredibly humbled that I have the opportunity to share my songs and perform in London again. If that means I make history, then I will be very blessed.
“It makes me happy when the world sings my songs with me, and my London fans are the absolute best.” This milestone adds to Arijit’s remarkable list of achievements, including being the most followed artist on Spotify and featuring on Ed Sheeran’s forthcoming single Sapphire. It also marks a major moment for show organisers TCO Group and Vijay Bhola’s Rock On Music.
Arijit Singh
SNEHA SHANKAR IS JUST SENSATIONAL
I was really impressed with Indian Idol 15 finalist Sneha Shankar after watching her make her UK stage debut. The gifted 19-year-old has incredible versatility – ranging from the raw power of Sufi sensation Jyoti Nooran to the gentle finesse of Bollywood music queen Shreya Ghoshal. Although she did not win the reality TV show, her multi-layered vocals could turn her into a future superstar, if paired with the right songs. It is no surprise she secured a lucrative contract with India’s biggest record label, T-Series. She is destined for greatness.
Sneha Shankar
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Priya Mulji with participants at a Thailand retreat
I turned 43 recently, and it was the best birthday of my life. Special for so many reasons. For the first time since my twenties, I spent my birthday abroad. (In case you were wondering – Phuket, Thailand.)
Last year, I impulsively booked myself onto my friend Urvashi’s mind, body and soul expansion experience. Since then, life has taken some unexpected turns – including being made redundant from my day job – so this trip could not have come at a better time.
Before leaving, I was apprehensive. I had never been to East Asia. Would I like it? Would I get on with the other women? Should I really be going on a two-week trip without a job? What vaccinations would I need? Would the street food give me Delhi belly?
I need not have worried. Within the first day, all my fears melted away. The group of women on the trip were inspiring – each there for her own reasons – and across the week, I connected with them in unique and beautiful ways.
We ranged in age from 37 to 53. Some of us were single, others married with grown-up children. Some were high-flying execs, others unemployed.
But there was no sense of hierarchy – no “I’m better than you.” Just acceptance.
It was a trip of firsts. I got up at 5.30am on my birthday to do a four-kilometre mountain hike to see the Big Buddha. I got in a kayak and floated in the middle of the ocean, despite being a terrible swimmer. I took a Thai cooking class and finally learned how to make some of my favourite dishes.
But the biggest lesson from this impactful trip was this: it is so important to find people who bring good energy, who listen without judgment. Surround yourself with those who offer wisdom and support, not force their opinions on you. Who remind you that you are respected. That you are loved.
For anyone feeling lost, unloved, or unsure of how to navigate life, know that your tribe might be out there, waiting to meet you in the most unexpected of places. I found a new sisterhood in just one week. So take a chance. Step out of your comfort zone. Do something you never imagined doing.
I will leave you with the words of Usha, who was on the trip: “We are all devis in our own way.” I dedicate this column to Jaymini, Leena, Nina, Usha, Iram and Rinku – for helping me in ways they may never fully understand.
And to my darling Urvashi, thank you for bringing us all together. You created magic. You gave me the best birthday gift I could ever have asked for.
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Britain faces challenges in changing attitudes around diversity
IT HAS been five years since the biggest anti-racism protests in a generation – but how far did they have a lasting legacy?
The protests across America after the murder of George Floyd spread to Britain too. There was no central organisation, nor a manifesto of demands, as students and sixth formers took to the streets.
This was the time of the Covid pandemic in which two-thirds of NHS staff who had tragically lost their lives were ethnic minorities. But placards declaring “racism is the real pandemic” risked mixing metaphors to deadly effect. So the Covid context reinforced a generational divide.
The UK protests of 2020 were a cross-ethnic movement primarily of black, Asian and white young people – though there were many older armchair supporters. Indeed, a third of ethnic minority Britons felt they had participated, primarily by voicing online support.
The Black British are four per cent of the population, compared to 13 per cent in America – about a quarter of visible minorities in the UK. Most of the larger British Asian group felt supportive of the anti-racism protests too. Cricketer Azeem Rafiq felt it was why his challenge to racism in Yorkshire cricket finally cut through.
The protests mobilised – and polarised. Online arguments were especially heated, but offline conversations could be more thoughtful. Quite a few people were in listening mode that summer.
Britain is not America was the core point for those critical of the protests – yet I found those who took part often quick to acknowledge that. America’s gun problem gave racism in policing a different intensity of urgent threat. But too much focus on transatlantic differences could underpin complacency about real challenges to face up to in Britain too.
Once the statue of Edward Colston was pulled down in Bristol on June 7, history and statues became a central theme. A year later, ahead of Euro 2021, footballers taking the knee became the symbolic focal point.
Boris Johnson’s government commissioned a review of ethnic disparities, but the Sewell report generated a starkly polarised debate with its optimistic counter-narrative about Britain leading the world.
The argument was about language – what it meant to be ‘institutionally racist’ – with the report’s incremental proposals on issues such as curriculum reform, policing data and online hatred barely discussed.
As the pattern of opportunities and outcomes on race in Britain becomes more complex than ever, the politics seems ever more binary. The Tories chose three more leaders – our first Asian prime minister, who preferred that not to be noticed too much; and the party’s first black British leader, a vocal critic of all things ‘woke’.
In opposition, Sir Keir Starmer declared the protests a ‘defining moment’ and issued an awkward photograph of himself taking the knee in his office alongside his deputy leaders.
Efforts to weaponise that image against him fell rather flat.
Labour pledged a new race equality act but tried to say as little as it could about race. The party had an electoral strategy of taking ethnic minorities for granted – a product of its exclusive geographical focus on the people and places who were not already Labour.
Shedding minority votes on both its left and right flank complicated the party’s nascent thinking about whether or how to respond.
In government, the party was reluctant to draw attention to its legislative pledge. It is now consulting on those measures so quietly that very few people have noticed.
Beyond one strong Starmer passage about last summer’s racist riots at the Labour conference, no leading voice in this government has found an appetite or voice to make a substantial argument about race, opportunity or identity in Britain today.
The anti-racism protests galvanised but polarised. It is the identity politics of Donald Trump which set America’s agenda now – ironically taking affirmative action to absurd lengths, but only for deeply unqualified Trump loyalists. Because Britain is not America, most people would reject emulating the Trump effort to repeal any mention of diversity or inclusion here.
But finding forward momentum is more challenging.
Those suspicious of the sincerity of corporate declarations of support for the Black Lives Matter movement felt vindicated by their flipping as the political weather changed.
UK corporations are often seeking to continue work on inclusion while side-stepping polarised political controversies. National charities lag behind the public and private sector.
That patchy response may explain why one institutional legacy of the protests is the effort of high-profile black Britons, such as Lewis Hamilton, Raheem Sterling and Stormzy, to create their own foundations.
Five years on, the legacy can be hard to discern. The core message of the anti-racism protests in Britain was that the progress we have made on race has not met the rising expectations of the next generation.
It will take more confidence among institutions of political, economic and cultural power about how to act as well as talk about race and inclusion – or those rising expectations risk remaining frustratingly unmet.
Sunder Katwala is the director of thinktank British Future and the author of the book How to Be a Patriot: The must-read book on British national identity and immigration.
Hollywood actor Kumail Nanjiani has returned to his stand-up comedy roots with a major tour of his show Doing This Again. He is set to perform at Union Chapel in London on September 20. Once the tour concludes, the stand-up special will stream on a major platform. The multi-talented star also has several upcoming projects, including roles in the high-profile films Ella McCay, The Wrong Girls and Driver’s Ed.
Kumail Nanjiani
DYNAMIC DRESS
Unlike most Indian celebrities who wear expensive designer gowns on the Cannes red carpet, Simran Balar Jain chose to do things differently. The social media influencer wore a striking outfit featuring a symbolic silhouette of one woman lifting another. Her hand-sculpted gold metal corset, made from recycled materials, conveyed a powerful message of collective empowerment and sisterhood. She also shared engaging behind-the-scenes vlogs from the film festival.
Simran Balar Jain
SOCIAL MEDIA SPOILER
The Sixth Sense (1999), directed by M. Night Shyamalan, was a spectacular success thanks to its unexpected twist ending. If the film were released today, it would not have had the same impact – social media users would have quickly given away the big surprise. Bollywood comedy Housefull 5, like many modern-day murder mystery films, is likely to face a similar problem when it is released next Friday (6).
Within hours, social media users, vloggers and influencers will reveal the identity of the murderer, which will undermine one of the film’s main selling points
Mumtaz
STREAMING SITE STINKER
It is utterly tragic to see how Netflix has become a dumping ground for substandard Indian content. Whether it is acquiring disastrous box office failures or greenlighting dreadful original productions, the clueless streaming platform seems to attract horrid Indian projects. A prime example is the recently premiered series The Royals, which is shockingly poor. The cringeworthy drama, headlined by Bhumi Pednekar and Ishaan Khatter, is best avoided.
Five years from now
BAD BOLLYWOOD IDEA
Instead of using their platform to call for peace, most celebrities in India and Pakistan have either remained silent or acted as cheerleaders for bombings that have claimed lives on both sides of the border. Some C-listers in both countries have even used the ongoing conflict to generate cheap publicity. Perhaps the worst response has come from those already looking to cash in on what is ultimately a human tragedy. Bollywood producers and stars rushed to register the title Operation Sindoor and now plan to profit from a film named after India’s missile strike on Pakistan. If past films are any indication, the conflict will likely be exaggerated on screen, featuring caricatured villains and misinformation – further inflaming tensions rather than promoting understanding.
Janhvi Kapoor
PHALKE FILM BIOPIC
The dream team of actor Aamir Khan and filmmaker Rajkumar Hirani will reunite – after record-breaking hits PK and 3 Idiots – for a biopic on the father of Indian cinema, Dadasaheb Phalke. The film will trace his journey towards making India’s first feature film, Raja Harishchandra, in 1913. Meanwhile, acclaimed director SS Rajamouli is planning a separate film on the same subject, with superstar NTR Jr in the lead role. This follows the 2009 award-winning Marathi film Harishchandrachi Factory, which was India’s official entry for the Academy Awards.
Dadasaheb Phalke
HOLLYWOOD BUBBLE BURST
For Indian celebrities, it often seems that anything made in America is labelled a Hollywood project – even when it has no connection to a major studio. That is why reports of Kangana Ranaut making her “Hollywood debut” with the forthcoming film Blessed Be the Evil are rather absurd. A closer look reveals that it is an independent production, co-written and directed by the relatively inexperienced Anurag Rudra. Ranaut will reportedly star alongside a couple of Z-listers in this psychological horror drama. The only genuinely entertaining aspect of this film might be watching the clueless individuals bankrolling it eventually discover just how notoriously difficult Kangana is to work with. That is why I predict this project will either be shelved or flop badly — if it ever gets completed at all.