Pakistan holds 170 nuclear warheads, potential for 200 by 2025: Report
Given the absence of reliable data originating from within Pakistan, the Nuclear Notebook used a combination of open-source materials to arrive at their estimates
Top American atomic scientists have reported that Pakistan possesses an estimated stockpile of around 170 nuclear warheads, with the potential to increase this number to approximately 200 by 2025, based on the current rate of growth.
"We estimate that Pakistan now has a nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 170 warheads. The US Defense Intelligence Agency projected in 1999 that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020, but several new weapon systems have been fielded and developed since then, which leads us to a higher estimate,” the Nuclear Notebook column published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on September 11 said.
The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information's Project Director Hans M Kristensen, senior research fellow Matt Korda, and research associate Eliana Johns. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987.
"Our estimate comes with considerable uncertainty because neither Pakistan nor other countries publish much information about the Pakistani nuclear arsenal,” the scientists said.
Given the absence of reliable data originating from within Pakistan, the Nuclear Notebook used a combination of open-source materials to arrive at their estimates and carry out the analysis.
Their sources included state-originating data (e.g., government statements, declassified documents, budgetary information, military parades, and treaty disclosure data) and non-state-originating data (e.g., media reports, think tank analysis, and industry publications). Interestingly, they also extensively used commercial satellite imagery.
"Each one of these sources provides different and limited information that is subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. We cross-checked each data point by using multiple sources and supplementing them with private conversations with officials whenever possible,” the trio said.
With several new delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors, and an expanding uranium enrichment infrastructure, Pakistan's stockpile has the potential to increase further over the next several years, the Nuclear Notebook said.
"The size of this projected increase will depend on several factors, including how many nuclear-capable launchers Pakistan plans to deploy, how its nuclear strategy evolves, and how much the Indian nuclear arsenal grows. We estimate that the country's stockpile could potentially grow to around 200 warheads by the late 2020s, at the current growth rate,” the scientists said.
"But unless India significantly expands its arsenal or further builds up its conventional forces, it seems reasonable to expect that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal will not continue to grow indefinitely but might begin to level off as its current weapons programmes are completed,” they added.
Even when the document listed fissile materials production and inventory from available sources in the public domain, the scientists put out a disclaimer: “Calculating stockpile size based solely on fissile material inventory is an incomplete methodology that tends to overestimate the likely number of nuclear warheads.”
“We estimate that Pakistan currently is producing sufficient fissile material to build 14 to 27 new warheads per year, although we estimate that the actual warhead increase in the stockpile probably averages around 5 to 10 warheads per year,” they further said.
Dwelling in detail on the subject of nuclear-capable aircraft and air-delivered weapons, the Nuclear Notebook listed 36 Mirage III/IV and JF17s. Similarly, it also mentioned details about six currently operational nuclear-capable, solid-fuel, road-mobile ballistic missile systems under the land-based ballistic missiles category – the short-range Abdali (Hatf-2), Ghaznavi (Hatf-3), Shaheen-I/A (Hatf-4), and Nasr (Hatf-9), and the medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5) and Shaheen-II (Hatf-6).
Commenting on the 2017's medium-range ballistic missile called Ababeel that Pakistan said is “capable of carrying multiple warheads, using multiple independent reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology,” the Nuclear Notebook observed, “Development of multiple-warhead capability appears to be intended as a countermeasure against India's planned ballistic missile defense system. Its status remains unclear as of July 2023.”
Pointing out that the total number and location of Pakistan's nuclear-capable missile bases and facilities remains unknown, the document said, “Analysis of commercial satellite imagery suggests that Pakistan maintains at least five missile bases that could serve a role in Pakistan's nuclear forces.”
It then went on to list the bases with its coordinates and other details, including satellite images: Akro Garrison, Gujranwala Garrison, Khuzdar Garrison, Pano Aqil Garrison and Sargodha Garrison.
Stating how Pakistan's family of ground- and sea-launched cruise missiles is “undergoing significant development with work on several types and modifications,” the Nuclear Notebook listed details of Babur (Hatf-7) with Babur 1 and Babur 1A, Babur 2 or Babur 1B GLCM, Babur 3 and an under-development variant known as the Harbah.
Admitting that little is publicly known about warhead production, the scientists said: “But experts have suspected for many years that the Pakistan Ordnance Factories near Wah, northwest of Islamabad, serve a role. One of the Wah factories is located near a unique facility with six earth-covered bunkers (igloos) inside a multi-layered safety perimeter with armed guards.”
A 24-year-old man has been sentenced to life in prison for rape, attempted rape and firearm offences following a Metropolitan Police investigation in west London.
Navroop Singh, of Mellow Lane East, Hayes, was convicted of five charges including rape and was sentenced on Friday, July 4 at Isleworth Crown Court. He must serve a minimum of 14 years.
Singh was found guilty of attempting to rape a woman in Southall Park, Ealing, on October 13, 2024. He was also convicted of possession of an imitation firearm with intent to commit an indictable offence.
He had earlier pleaded guilty to three further charges: possession of an imitation firearm with intent to commit an indictable offence, rape of a girl under 13, and assault of a girl under 13 by penetration. These charges relate to the rape of a child at Hayes End Park, Hillingdon, on October 23, 2024.
Police launched an investigation following the attempted rape report in Ealing. Officers gathered evidence including CCTV footage, witness accounts and forensic material. The woman had approached two off-duty officers near the park gates, who helped her reach a police station.
Detectives linked the Ealing incident to the rape of a child ten days later. They increased patrols, distributed leaflets in the area, and traced Singh to a location near his home. He was arrested on 27 October.
Acting Chief Superintendent Sean Lynch said: “I would like to commend the strength of the victim-survivors and their families and thank them for their unwavering bravery in reporting these awful incidents to us.
“Today’s conviction is testament to the officers’ thorough investigation, which has identified a violent sexual offender and undoubtedly prevented further harm.
“We are continuing to prioritise tackling violence against women and girls with our increased specialist teams. I hope that the community will find reassurance in our action to put this predator behind bars.”
Specialist officers supported both victims during the investigation and trial.
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'The 100 Club offers a powerful way to support and scale-up this work,' said the organisers.
LEPRA launched its first high-value giving network, the 100 Club, on June 26. The event was held at Quilon Restaurant in London and brought together philanthropists, business leaders and supporters of the charity’s work.
The event was hosted by Kalpesh Solanki, Group Managing Editor of Asian Media Group and President of the 100 Club. Remarks were delivered by Lepra’s Chair of Trustees Suzanne McCarthy and CEO Jimmy Innes, who spoke about the organisation’s ASPIRE project.
The project focuses on identifying undiagnosed cases of leprosy and lymphatic filariasis through community-based healthcare.
“The 100 Club offers a powerful way to support and scale-up this work,” said the organisers.
The event was hosted by Kalpesh Solanki, Group Managing Editor of Asian Media Group and President of the 100 Club.
The initiative features three membership levels and includes special recognition for founding members who join in 2025.
Lepra’s case-finding strategy involves door-to-door screening by trained teams, who identify symptoms and refer individuals for diagnosis and free multidrug therapy (MDT) treatment.
The charity said this approach has detected up to 300 per cent more leprosy cases compared to traditional methods, while using fewer human resources and reducing costs.
According to Lepra, the case detection programme costs £1 million annually and reached 61,215 people last year.
Currently, one in four families with children under five do not have access to local children’s centres or Family Hubs. (Representational image: iStock)
THE UK government has announced the nationwide rollout of Best Start Family Hubs across every local authority, aiming to support 500,000 more children by 2028.
The hubs are intended to offer easier access to family services and reduce pressure on parents.
Nationwide rollout and funding
Currently, one in four families with children under five do not have access to local children’s centres or Family Hubs.
The new initiative, backed by over £500 million, will create up to 1,000 hubs by the end of 2028, with all local authorities expected to have a hub by April 2026.
Areas including Warrington, Leeds, Reading, and Somerset are among those to gain access.
The hubs will provide services such as early language support, parenting sessions, housing advice, breastfeeding support, mental health services, and debt and welfare guidance.
A new digital platform will also be launched to connect parents with local hubs and the NHS App.
Quotes from ministers and organisations
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said: “It’s the driving mission of this government to break the link between a child’s background and what they go on to achieve – our new Best Start Family Hubs will put the first building blocks of better life chances in place for more children.”
Health and Social Care Secretary Wes Streeting said: “By bringing together early support services and investing £500 million in children’s development, we’re taking preventative action that will improve lives and reduce pressure on the NHS – a key part of our 10 Year Health Plan.”
Anna Feuchtwang, CEO of the National Children’s Bureau, said: “The Prime Minister’s Plan for Change set out his ambition to improve outcomes in early childhood. Now the government has put its money where its mouth is and committed to rolling out Best Start Family Hubs in every local authority.”
TWO brothers accused of assaulting a man inside a Starbucks and later attacking police officers at Manchester Airport are standing trial, with the prosecution arguing they used "unlawful and extreme violence".
Mohammed Fahir Amaaz, 20, and his older brother Muhammad Amaad, 26, both from Rochdale, are said to have acted aggressively on July 23 last year while at the airport to pick up their mother, who had arrived on a flight from Qatar.
The pair deny the charges and claim they were defending themselves.
Liverpool Crown Court heard the trouble started when their mother, shortly after landing, pointed out a man she had an issue with - Abdulkareem Ismaeil - who was inside a Starbucks café with his family.
Prosecutor Paul Greaney KC said the younger brother, Amaaz, approached Ismaeil, shouted at him, then headbutted and punched him in front of his children.
Starbucks manager Cameron Cartledge said he heard loud voices and saw a man in a blue tracksuit—later identified as Amaaz—arguing closely with another man.
"Blue tracksuit man seemed quite aggressive. He got in the man’s face and shouted. Then he headbutted him, which made him stumble back," said Cartledge, adding that he called police immediately.
Another witness, barista Justine Pakalne, said the violence came from Amaaz, not Ismaeil. "Even if the other man stepped forward, he didn’t touch him. It was Amaaz who headbutted him," she said.
After the café incident, police officers found the brothers near the car park payment area of Terminal 2. According to Greaney, three officers - PCs Zachary Marsden, Ellie Cook, and Lydia Ward - approached to arrest Amaaz. When they did, he resisted and Amaad stepped in.
The court heard that both brothers attacked PC Marsden. Amaaz is also accused of assaulting PC Cook and breaking PC Ward’s nose during the struggle.
"The level of violence was very high," said Greaney. "Amaaz held PC Marsden by the neck, pulling him to the ground. PC Marsden managed to break free and later kicked Amaaz in the face to protect himself."
The prosecution acknowledged that the officer’s actions might appear “shocking” in isolation but argued they must be seen in the context of an armed officer facing a serious threat. "This happened in a busy airport where officers feared their weapons could be taken," Greaney said.
CCTV and police bodycam footage were shown to jurors, showing the incident unfold.
The defence claims both men acted in self-defence. However, Greaney dismissed that argument: "What the footage shows is not defensive behaviour, but offensive and violent conduct."
The court also heard that Ismaeil declined to give a police statement and is not part of the trial.
Both defendants deny all charges. The trial will continue on Monday (7).
THE seven-year prison sentence handed to a 15-year-old boy convicted of the manslaughter of 80-year-old Bhim Sen Kohli is to be reviewed under the UK’s Unduly Lenient Sentence (ULS) scheme.
The boy, who cannot be named due to legal restrictions, was found guilty of carrying out an "unprovoked" attack on Kohli as he walked his dog in a park in Leicester, eastern England, in September last year.
The review follows a detailed assessment by Solicitor General Lucy Rigby KC MP to determine whether the case met the threshold for referral.
“The Solicitor General, Lucy Rigby KC MP, was appalled by this violent, cowardly attack on an innocent man. She wishes to express her deepest sympathies to Bhim Kohli’s friends and family at this difficult time,” said a spokesperson for the Attorney General’s Office.
“After a detailed review of the case, the Solicitor General concluded the sentence of the 15-year-old could be referred to the Court of Appeal. The court will now determine whether the sentence should be increased.”
A 13-year-old girl, who was also convicted of manslaughter for her role in the attack, avoided a custodial sentence. She had filmed the assault while laughing and encouraging the boy, the court heard.
At a sentencing hearing on June 5 at Leicester Crown Court, Justice Mark Turner described the attack as “wicked”. He said he was legally bound to consider the defendants’ ages.
The boy, referred to as D1, was convicted of physically assaulting Kohli, while the girl, referred to as D2, received a three-year youth rehabilitation order with a six-month curfew.
Addressing the girl in court, Justice Turner said that a custodial sentence would likely cause “more harm than good”. It is understood that her sentence will not be referred for review as it did not meet the legal threshold.
During the trial, the court was told that Kohli had been racially abused and repeatedly punched and kicked. His daughter, Susan Kohli, found him lying on the ground after the attack.
“They chose to attack a defenceless pensioner and for that I cannot give them any of my sympathy,” she said after the sentencing.
Kelly Matthews, senior district crown prosecutor at the Crown Prosecution Service, called the incident “tragic” and said it had deeply affected the Leicester community and beyond.
“Kohli set out to walk his dog in his local park, as he did every day, but lost his life in what followed,” she said.