- Up to 90,000 bankers, lawyers and accountants could leave London over the next five years.
- The shift could add £9 billion to regional economies, rising to £15 billion with wider spending effects.
- Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds are expected to attract the largest share of the jobs.
London could be on the verge of losing 90,000 white-collar jobs as companies increasingly look beyond the capital for cheaper offices and skilled workers.
The forecast from recruitment company Robert Walters suggests the movement could add £9 billion to regional economies, with the wider impact potentially reaching £15 billion once additional spending and activity across local supply chains are included.
The shift would still represent only 2.5 per cent of London's workforce, but it could change where professional jobs are concentrated across the UK. Robert Walters expects around 12,000 roles to have moved out of London by the end of 2027, with the number rising to 45,000 by 2029 and potentially reaching 90,000 by 2031.
The analysis was based on previous job relocations by major UK employers, recruitment placement data and LinkedIn movement data. It also considered office availability, hybrid working, local talent pools, regional development programmes and government decentralisation plans.
The jobs are following the economics
The cost of operating in London appears to be a major factor behind the expected shift.
A shortage of prime office space has pushed London rents to record levels, while hybrid working has made it easier for companies to divide teams between different locations. Robert Walters said businesses were increasingly considering regional offices as they look for ways to manage those costs.
Senior executives are expected to remain largely in London, with companies instead potentially expanding their junior and mid-level teams in regional cities.
Daniel Harris, UK managing director at Robert Walters, reportedly said the movement could accelerate as businesses continue to face high costs and hybrid working allows them to create more geographically dispersed teams.
That could mean fewer dramatic headquarters moves and more gradual changes, with companies retaining their London leadership while shifting larger parts of their workforce elsewhere.
Manchester and Birmingham could be among the biggest winners
The northwest is forecast to attract the largest number of jobs, with 22,500 positions potentially moving to Manchester, Liverpool and other cities in the region by 2031.
Robert Walters estimates that could contribute up to £2.25 billion to the northwest economy.
The Midlands could receive around 18,000 jobs, mainly in Birmingham, generating an estimated £1.8 billion boost, while Yorkshire could attract about 13,500 roles worth around £1.35 billion to its regional economy.
Other potential destinations include Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cambridge, Newcastle, Reading and Cardiff.
There are already signs of major employers building significant operations outside the capital. Deloitte has its second-largest UK office in Birmingham, Siemens moved its UK headquarters to Manchester from Surrey in 2019, and the Bank of England plans to have one in ten of its workforce based in Leeds from 2027.
The impact could extend beyond the companies making the moves. A larger population of professional workers could increase demand for housing, transport, restaurants, shops, co-working spaces and other local services.
Jonny Bohane of Robert Walters' market intelligence team reportedly said the benefits could spread through local economies as professionals move into regional cities and increase demand for businesses supporting them.
The forecast also fits with the government's wider devolution plans, which aim to spread economic activity beyond London. The capital currently generates about a quarter of the UK's economic output, leaving the country more economically centralised than many other developed economies.
Whether the projected 90,000 jobs actually move will depend on how quickly businesses embrace regional hiring, whether cities can supply enough skilled workers and how companies use hybrid working in the coming years.
For now, the forecast points to a gradual change rather than a London exodus, with the capital likely to retain its senior leadership and financial importance while more of the UK's professional workforce is spread across Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and other regional centres.
