- Europe faces no immediate jet fuel shortage despite Middle East supply disruptions.
- Some airlines are cutting less profitable routes as fuel costs climb.
- Passengers could face higher fares later as fuel hedging protections expire.
Europe has avoided a jet fuel shortage despite months of disruption to global oil supplies, but airlines are increasingly feeling the financial strain of higher fuel costs, prompting some carriers to cut routes that no longer make economic sense, according to a Reuters report.
The latest developments highlight how the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to ripple through the aviation industry. While European fuel supplies remain stable for now, airline executives and policymakers are closely watching fuel prices, which could eventually translate into higher airfares and reduced connectivity on some routes.
Fuel tanks remain full, but pressure is building
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping corridors, has been largely closed for the past three months, removing roughly 14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets, equivalent to around 14 per cent of worldwide demand.
Despite the disruption, the European Union has largely managed to secure alternative supplies. The Middle East normally accounts for about 20 per cent of Europe's jet fuel imports, but additional shipments from the US and Nigeria have helped fill the gap.
European transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas reportedly said there were currently no indications of a jet fuel shortage across Europe and no signs that one was imminent. However, he warned that smaller regional airports could be more vulnerable if supply conditions deteriorate.
The bigger concern for airlines is not availability but cost. Jet fuel typically represents between 25 per cent and 30 per cent of airline operating expenses, according to the International Air Transport Association.
With fuel prices remaining elevated, some airlines have already begun trimming routes that generate weak returns. Tzitzikostas reportedly said carriers were cancelling services that no longer made economic sense under current market conditions.
Passengers may not immediately notice the impact. Many airlines have fuel hedging arrangements that protect them from short-term price swings. However, as those contracts expire, travellers could face higher ticket prices later in 2026 and into 2027.
Oil market analysts expect crude prices to average around $90 (£66) a barrel this year, roughly 40 per cent higher than levels seen before the latest Middle East disruption.
A wider economic risk
European officials are also looking beyond aviation. If supply disruptions continue and energy costs remain elevated, the consequences could spread across the broader economy.
Tzitzikostas reportedly said the situation could become "very difficult" if Middle Eastern energy exports remain constrained through the end of the year. He stressed the importance of restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while noting that European countries hold emergency energy reserves that could be released if required.
For now, European authorities believe there is a degree of stability in fuel markets. However, uncertainty remains high as diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington continue to produce limited progress.
Economists have warned that a prolonged energy shock could weigh heavily on global growth. The OECD has previously cautioned that an extended disruption could slow economic activity to levels associated with the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
For Europe's airlines, the immediate threat may not be empty fuel tanks but the growing cost of keeping planes in the air.
