ANDY BURNHAM could benefit from a split in the populist right-wing vote as voters in Makerfield head to the polls in a contest that could shape the future leadership of the Labour Party.
The election in the northern England constituency has been described as one of the most consequential one-off contests in modern British political history.
The result could determine whether Burnham, Labour's mayor of Greater Manchester, returns to parliament and gains the platform needed to challenge prime minister Keir Starmer for the country's leadership.
Opinion polls suggest Burnham is ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK by between five and 12 points, although such surveys are prone to significant margins of error. Labour won the seat by 13 points over Reform in the 2024 general election.
The contest has been complicated by the presence of Restore Britain, the party led by Rupert Lowe following his split with Farage last year. Polls indicate Restore is attracting around 7-8 per cent support in Makerfield, a level that could damage Reform's chances of winning the seat.
Peter Thompson, who runs a record shop in Ashton-in-Makerfield, said he planned to vote for Reform but believed the division on the right could work in Labour's favour.
"All my voting in life there's only been two parties that have run this country, Labour and Conservatives. Look around you, it's a mess," the 78-year-old said, describing how Britain's politics has fractured into more parties and independent representatives than ever before.
"If it was a straightforward fight, I think Reform may well edge it but because there's that many parties that you can vote for now, I think it will swing it to Labour's advantage, unfortunately."
Josh Simons stepped down last month to allow Burnham to contest the seat. Labour rules require anyone seeking to challenge the party leadership to be a member of parliament.
Both Reform and Restore present themselves as anti-establishment parties with hardline immigration policies, with Restore advocating mass deportations.
Farage said last week the election was a two-horse race and warned that voting for Restore risked allowing in "perhaps the most left-wing prime minister of modern times".
Burnham has focused his campaign on the long-term impact of industrial decline in the area.
"It all adds up to 40 years of neoliberalism that have not been kind to the North of England. Forty years of trickle-down economics that did not again trickle down very much at all," Burnham said last month as he launched his campaign.
Official figures show Makerfield sits in the middle of national deprivation rankings on income but performs less well on employment and health measures. The constituency scores better on access to housing and services, an area central to Burnham's vision for Britain, which he describes as "business friendly socialism".
Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, said the constituency's profile differs from traditional perceptions of Labour's former northern strongholds.
"It is a seat of aspirational middle-class commuters, as much as anything," Ford told Blonde Money, an independent financial and political consultancy.
"It is 'Red Wall' in its heritage and identity, it is not Red Wall in terms of the kind of people who live here," said Ford, referring to the traditionally working-class Labour-held northern seats, many of which swung briefly to Boris Johnson's Conservatives in 2019 and are now key Reform targets.
Despite Labour's historic strength in the constituency, Reform swept 24 of 25 Wigan Borough Council seats, including those covering the Makerfield area, in local elections on May 7.
Labour has committed significant resources to defending the seat, with cabinet ministers and senior lawmakers joining campaign efforts.
On the streets, support for Reform appears particularly visible in working-class areas such as the Stubshaw Cross estate, where more Reform placards can be seen than Labour ones.
Burnham's campaign has also highlighted a contrast between his reputation as a mayor known for local transparency and media accessibility and the tightly managed approach being taken as he returns to national politics.
For voters such as Neil Price, a 41-year-old bricklayer, the decision is straightforward.
"I'm going to be voting for Andy Burnham. I know he does a lot for the community round here. He does well with everything he talks about ... so yeah, he's the one I'm going to be voting for."
