“THIS year will be harder than last year. On the other hand, it will be easier than next year,” the Albanian dictator Enver Hoxha once told his people in his new year message.
To approach 2026 with such grinding pessimism would be a step too far, but the only safe prediction may be to expect another volatile year in domestic and global politics.
The UK government hopes that 2026 will be a year when disaffected voters start to feel a gradual recovery in living standards and the condition of public services. But Westminster’s dominant new year guessing game is whether the year will see a change of prime minister.
It is only Sir Keir Starmer’s second anniversary in Downing Street in July. Yet, two years is now the average Downing Street tenure of the Brexit era, making Starmer already the fifth prime minister to take office since the 2016 referendum.
May’s elections across the UK present the prime minister’ moment of maximum danger. A seismic political earthquake is forecast in Wales, where Labour has won every election for a century. Yet the Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru compete with Reform to lead the polls and end Labour’s quarter-century of leading Wales since devolution. Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth’s chances of emerging as first minister will be much boosted, if his party is seen as the main alternative to reform leader Nigel Farage.
Plaid leads the polls among the under-50s, while the oldest voters prefer Reform, giving the next government a major challenge of how to bridge geographical, generational and political polarisation in Wales.
In Scotland, the SNP government is seeking re-election after 18 years in office, and may buck the anti-incumbent trend thanks in large part to the unpopularity of the Westminster government.
If Reform gains more councils, while the Green Party surges in council elections in London and other cities, Labour could face defeat on four different fronts, exacerbating a deeply contested internal debate about the right governing and political strategy to recover.
The bookmakers imply that Starmer has only about a 40 per cent chance of surviving the year, though betting odds may somewhat underestimate how the forces of inertia could assist the incumbent. The Labour Party has been historically much less likely than the Conservatives to force its leaders out. Starmer may attempt a significant reconstruction of his government – in personnel and policy – to seek to bring his rivals and critics into a new effort to turn the government’s prospects around over the next two years.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch hopes to show that political fortunes can change. A few months ago, 2026 was almost universally anticipated as the year of the last rites for her party leadership. A modest recovery in the polls has shifted the mood among Conservative MPs and commentators that the party may survive the apparently existential challenge from Reform on its right, even if strikingly little of the damage to the governing party is set to be done by the official opposition.
2026 could prove a year of retreat for Trumpism. The president’s Republican Party are on course for a significant retreat in November’s mid-term elections. Trump’s tariffs have hit American living standards, though his second term modelled on a protection racket has enriched the president, himself. The Democrats gaining at least one chamber of Congress would see efforts to restore battered constitutional constraints, though electoral setbacks will also deepen the White House’s authoritarian instincts. Abroad, Trump’s main European ally, Viktor Orban, faces an uphill struggle to retain power in Hungary in April’s election. The Trump White House wants regime change across Europe, yet voters are more likely to punish than reward those offering to import Trumpism. Yet Farage still seems to regard his relationship with Trump as more of an asset than a liability.
June’s 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote may see a sharper political argument over the future of the government, as it becomes bolder in proposing a closer UK-EU relationship to limit the damage of Brexit, in stark contrast to Farage’s pitch to a dwindling tribe of Brexit true believers. September’s 25th anniversary of 9/11 offers a chance to reflect on its longterm impact not just on global politics, but on social relationships in the UK too, including within British Asian communities.
Football’s World Cup will dominate the sporting summer. After FIFA’s invented peace prize to flatter Trump’s ego, it will be up to the footballers to restore some dignity to this great tournament. Thomas Tuchel’s England face a daunting draw to bring a sixty-year quest for the trophy to an end, while Scotland dream of upsetting Brazil on their return to the global stage. Northern Ireland and Wales hope to upset Italy in the play-offs to join the party. What is a new year for, if it is not to be a time for hope?
The author is the director of thinktank British Future and the author of the book How to Be a Patriot: The must-read book on British national identity and immigration.
