IN THE CHAOTIC seas of British politics, James Kanagasooriam builds sandcastles. Not literal ones, of course, but political frameworks that help explain the seemingly inexplicable shifts in voter behaviour that have redefined the UK's political landscape.
"Labour is building a monumental sandcastle," he tweeted in June 2024. "Come 5th July it will take time to process and grapple with. And when it washes away we will be equally shocked."
Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata, has made a career of understanding the tides that wash those sandcastles away. The former investment banker at Rothschild turned polling expert has become one of Britain's most influential political analysts, not by following conventional wisdom but by questioning it.
His most famous contribution – originating the concept of the "Red Wall" – fundamentally altered how political strategists understood Labour's traditional heartlands. He identified a string of constituencies stretching across the Midlands and north of England which, demographically, despite their long association with Labour, looked far more pre-disposed to voting Conservative than previous election results had suggested.
That insight helped the Conservatives break through in 2019, cementing Kanagasooriam's reputation as someone who doesn't just interpret data but transforms it into actionable political strategy.
What distinguishes him from other pollsters is his ability to spot patterns others miss. In his Substack page, The Political Whiteboard, he offers a striking visualisation of the political cycle not as a simple pendulum but as a complex loop driven by both "thermostatic swing" and "block dominance."
"Britain's political cycle appears to be driven by thermostatic swing and 'block dominance'," he wrote. "The variables interact to create a basic political cycle."
Thermostatic politics is the idea that when a government of a particular stripe gets elected, the public in general moves the other way. He defines block dominance as the extent to which Labour and Conservatives dominate their own 'red' and 'blue' blocks respectively.
His analysis reveals uncomfortable truths for both major parties. "The political cycle is speeding up," he warned, noting the "reverse shift" for Labour after its 2024 victory is "happening at an unprecedented pace."
Though he sits on the advisory board of centre-right think tank Onward, his approach transcends partisan boundaries. His co-authored report "Minorities report: the attitudes of Britain's ethnic minority population", for UK in a Changing Europe think tank, challenges simplistic narratives about ethnic minority voting patterns.
"We are at an inflection point in terms of how ethnic minorities vote," he noted. "At future elections, Labour cannot rely on ethnic minority voters as a 'bloc' of support."
Before joining Focaldata in September 2022, he was the chief executive of Stack Data Strategy and previously headed analytics at Populus, where his team "utilised data science techniques to optimise political campaigning." Their work contributed to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives' successful 2017 Election campaign – another unexpected political sandcastle built in what had seemed hostile terrain.
Perhaps most unsettling for the political establishment is Kanagasooriam's observation that "volatility is now king." In a political landscape increasingly defined by fragmentation, with nearly 40 per cent of the electorate voting for parties other than Labour or the Conservatives, his ability to navigate these choppy waters makes him an indispensable guide.
