New report shows 'how we can actually stop the boats'

HOME SECRETARY Shabana Mahmood can adopt a bigger and bolder approach combining “control and compassion” in reducing the number of asylum seekers arriving on UK shores via small boats, a new report out today (18) said.

Britain on Thursday (18) returned the first migrant - an Indian national - to France under a new "one-in, one-out" deal, which Mahmood hailed as “an important first step to securing our borders".

The home secretary said, “The UK will always play its part in helping those genuinely fleeing persecution, but this must be done through safe, legal and managed routes - not dangerous crossings”.

Earlier in the day, a report by British Future thinktank said a scaled-up “routes and returns” deal, based on a model implemented by the US as well as the framework of the UK-France deal, could reduce Channel crossings by 75 per cent in the next three years.

Under proposals outlined in the report, the UK-France ‘one in one out’ deal can be expanded, enabling the return of a vast majority of those who arrive without permission in small boats to France.

This could be achieved by simultaneously allowing a significant number of people with the right to claim asylum via an expanded, regularised route to the UK, the report’s authors said.

Its premise is drawn from an initiative during the fourth year of former US president Joe Biden’s term, when irregular crossings at the US-Mexico border were reduced by 81 per cent from December 2023 to December 2024.

That strategy integrated swift returns of asylum seekers who arrived without authorisation with controlled and capped legal routes offering refugee protection to those who qualified.

Director of British Future and co-author of the report, Sunder Katwala, said, “The new home secretary needs to seize the initiative on small boats with a real-world plan bold enough to have an impact, but founded on hard evidence of what works.

“The foundations are in place in the UK-France deal. The US experience shows what can be achieved when this approach is delivered at scale.

“The public would support this: they want action on Channel crossings but still want Britain to protect refugees in need.

“Most people would prefer an orderly, controlled and humane system to the populist threat to tear everything up, which appeals only to a vocal minority.”

In the report, the authors said scaling-up the UK-France scheme would change the behaviour of people seeking asylum and thus undermine the business model of people smugglers.

Frank Sharry, former lead immigration advisor to the Kamala Harris presidential campaign in the US, and co-author of the report, said: “The policy lesson from America’s experience last year is clear: a mix of international cooperation, credible deterrence and managed legal pathways produces results.

“The political lesson is also clear: if Labour is to thwart the populists who weaponise migration in pursuit of power, a humane and workable solution to the small boats crisis is essential.”

Former Labour home secretary Charles Clarke said: “Sunder Katwala and Frank Sharry’s approach to ’stopping the boats’ demands serious and urgent consideration by the government.

“It is constructive, creative and establishes genuine control based on successful practical experience. Theirs is a realistic and humanitarian route to effective action.”

At a press conference this evening with visiting US president Donald Trump, UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer said it was important to make the migrant returns deal with France work, in order to control the number of those arriving.Trump urged Starmer to use military force if necessary.

"You have people coming in, and I told the prime minister I would stop it," the US presdient told reporters. "And it doesn't matter if you call out the military, it doesn't matter what means you use, but it's going to destroy... countries from within."

Starmer responded that on Britain's "one in, one out" deal with France, "it is important we're able to prove it can be done."

New polling by Ipsos for British Future showed a majority of the public (55 per cent) supports the proposal that “The UK should agree with France a capped number of people that the UK will admit into the UK each year to claim asylum by authorised routes, in return for France agreeing to take back those who cross the Channel without permission.”

Among those polled, the policy was opposed by 15 per cent, with majorities of Conservatives (64 per cent) and Reform UK voters (53 per cent) supportive, along with 62 per cent of Labour voters and 58 per cent of Lib Dems.

Even when a large number of authorised arrivals, 50,000 each year, is included in the policy proposal, public support still eclipsed opposition by 48 per cent to 18 per cent.