India's fertility rate drops to just under 2, further decline projected
As the elderly population grows and the workforce shrinks, national health insurance, social security programs, and healthcare infrastructure could face significant strain.
By Vibhuti PathakMar 21, 2024
A new study published in The Lancet reveals a significant decline in India's fertility rate. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which represents the average number of births per woman, has dropped from a staggering 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. This trend is expected to continue, with projections suggesting a further decrease to 1.29 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100.
India's declining birth rate mirrors a global phenomenon. The study found that the worldwide TFR has fallen from over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, with projections of a continued decline to 1.8 and 1.6 by 2050 and 2100, respectively.
Although, India has surpassed China in being the most populated nation, this new challenge is affecting the people of India.
While a declining birth rate can present environmental benefits by reducing strain on resources, the study also highlights potential challenges. This demographic shift, with a growing elderly population and shrinking workforce, could put stress on national health insurance, social security programs, and healthcare infrastructure.
Researchers from the Global Burden of Disease project a concerning demographic divide in the 21st century. While many countries grapple with declining birth rates, low-income regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to continue experiencing high fertility.
This will result in a situation where most children are born in the poorest parts of the world. Further compounding the problems, these high-fertility regions are likely to face the brunt of climate change, with increased floods, droughts, and extreme heat.
These factors threaten food, water, and resource security, while significantly raising the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths.
India's joint family households dropped from 19.1% to 16% between 2013 and 2017. (Representative image: iStock)
Challenges for India
For India, the specific implications of this trend include:
An ageing population: With fewer young people entering the workforce, India could face labour shortages in the coming decades.
Social imbalances: Gender preferences for sons may lead to further social imbalances.
Economic considerations: Economic policies and reforms will be crucial to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of declining fertility rates.
A call to action
Experts like Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India (PFI), emphasise the need for a comprehensive approach to address these challenges. Promoting gender equality and reducing the societal burdens of motherhood are seen as critical steps.
The study also suggests that improving women's access to education and contraceptives can play a significant role in managing population growth.
In an effort to address population growth, the Indian government is making family planning a priority. Mission Parivar Vikas targets 145 high-fertility districts across seven states, increasing access to contraceptives and family planning services.
The Ministry of Health is further expanding options by introducing two new contraceptives: an injectable option ("MPA" under the Antara program) and a new pill ("Chhaya") available within the public health system.
A global issue
India is not alone in facing this demographic shift. The Lancet study predicts that by 2050, an alarming 76 per cent of countries will have TFRs below replacement level, rising to a staggering 97 per cent by 2100.
South Korea's birth rate plummets again, dropping 8 per cent in 2023 to a shocking 0.72 children per woman – the world's lowest. This rate, far below the 2.1 needed for a stable population, deepens the country's demographic crisis, raising concerns about a future with a shrinking workforce and strained social programs.
This global trend necessitates a proactive approach from governments and societies worldwide. Investing in policies that empower women, address the economic burdens of child-rearing, and promote sustainable population growth are critical steps for a stable and prosperous future.
Indian High Commissioner Vikram Doraiswami highlighted inclusiveness and sustainability.
Leicester hosted scaled-back celebrations without fireworks after a safety review.
Cities across England marked the festival with community events.
THE ROYAL Family and UK prime minister Keir Starmer shared Diwali greetings on Monday, as the High Commission of India in London highlighted inclusiveness and sustainability as key messages of the Festival of Lights.
“Wishing a very happy Diwali to everyone celebrating the Festival of Lights in the UK and around the world,” reads a message from Buckingham Palace, shared across all its social media platforms.
Starmer also took to social media to wish “Hindus, Jains and Sikhs across Britain a joyful and peaceful Diwali and Bandi Chhor Divas”. The prime minister, who attended the Gaza peace summit in Egypt during the Diwali festivities at 10 Downing Street last week, reflected on his visit to Mumbai earlier this month in his post.
“Earlier this month, I lit a diya in Mumbai as a symbol of devotion, joy, and renewed bonds. As we celebrate this Festival of Lights, let’s keep building a Britain where everyone can look ahead with hope,” he said.
Opposition Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch described the festival as a “celebration of light over darkness, hope over despair, and the power of family, community and faith”.
“Wishing a very Happy Diwali to all those celebrating the festival of lights in the UK, India, and around the world. May this Diwali bring blessings, peace, and prosperity to everyone,” said Priti Patel, the shadow foreign secretary.
Indian High Commissioner to the UK, Vikram Doraiswami, in a video message, called Deepavali one of the central elements of India’s festive calendar.
“It is celebrated across all communities as an opportunity to bring together families and friends and celebrate the joys of the changing season, and the start of the cool season,” said Doraiswami.
“It is one of our most beloved festivals, not least because of the lights and traditional diyas that are lit up, but also for the opportunity to spend time with friends and family. Diwali these days is seen as an opportunity for an inclusive festival, a sustainable festival,” he said.
“Sustainability not just purely in the environmental sense with the use of renewables in our lights and displays, but also in terms of ensuring that you make it sustainable by bringing together all communities amongst whom you live,” he added.
“That is particularly applicable here in the United Kingdom as we celebrate the start of what is a longer festive season that continues right through to the end of the year,” he said.
Many of the annual Diwali festivities in the UK, including the Mayor of London’s Diwali on the Square, took place earlier this month.
In Leicester, known for its large-scale Diwali celebrations, this year’s event was scaled back with no fireworks display following a local council safety audit. The city’s Diwali Day celebrations were centred around a Wheel of Light — a 110-foot-high Ferris wheel on the Golden Mile at Belgrave Road — which was closed to traffic and lit up with thousands of colourful lights.
“We know that this year’s celebrations will feel different, but our priority must be the safety of the public,” said Councillor Vi Dempster, Leicester’s assistant city mayor for culture.
“We are absolutely determined that Diwali continues to be part of the city’s festive calendar. We will be working with partners and the local community to explore options for how the city builds on its proud tradition of bringing our communities together to celebrate the Festival of Light,” she said.
Meanwhile, Basingstoke and Reading in southern England hosted outdoor Diwali celebrations organised by Kala the Arts over the weekend, attracting hundreds of people.
The events featured theatrical processions with illuminated puppets, dhol music, classical dance performances, and lantern installations as part of the free-to-attend festival, now in its fifth year.
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