Instead of an overnight regime change, the war with Iran has now dragged on for five months. It is quite possible the ayatollahs are thinking of holding out for a couple of years until there is regime change – in Washington.
That means fluctuating oil prices will continue to damage the global economy, including Britain’s. There is little that Andy Burnham, the new British prime minister, or his foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, can do to resolve the crisis.
I remember that with the hostage crisis that I covered from Tehran, lasting 444 days, the Iranians refused to release the imprisoned Americans until Jimmy Carter had been replaced by Ronald Reagan in the White House. It was their way of humiliating Carter. They may now have a similar fate in mind for Trump.
What is worrying is that the Iranian regime, emboldened by Trump’s apparent weakness, has stepped up executing its own people.
On Monday (3), it executed Omid Behzad and Pouria Safvat on charges of espionage and cooperating with Israel, according to Iranian state media.
Reuters reported: “The executions come at a tense moment for Iran, which quelled a period of nationwide unrest in January by killing thousands of protesters, only for the US and Israel to launch renewed strikes on it on February 28. A source briefed on Israel’s military strategy told Reuters in March that during the current Iran war Israel targeted checkpoints manned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps based on intelligence from informants on the ground. Human Rights Watch reported on July 24 that Iran has executed at least 50 people in the past four months on vague national security charges, including several 18- and 19-year-olds.”
It added that Trump had said “talks with Iran would be held on Monday”. However, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said there were currently no talks with the US.
An Iranian woman walks past an anti-US and Israel billboard featuring Donald Trump in TehranAtta Kenare/ AFP via Getty Images
According to Amnesty International, “the public execution of two protesters today (3), following the arbitrary execution of at least three other protesters last week, marks a further escalation in the authorities’ use of the death penalty to quash dissent”.
Amnesty warned that “at least 60 others, including three arrested as children, remain at risk of execution after being sentenced to death, while many others are facing prosecution on capital charges in relation to the protests.
“In the first half of 2026, Iranian authorities have increasingly used broadly worded national security charges, including espionage and collaboration with hostile states, to convict and sentence to death individuals arrested in connection with the January 2026 protests.
“Since the beginning of the year, they have arbitrarily executed at least 26 people convicted of offences linked to the January protests, following torture-tainted and grossly unfair trials before Revolutionary Courts.
“Beyond those targeted in connection with the protests, the authorities have arbitrarily executed at least 26 others on politically motivated charges, while continuing to carry out hundreds of executions for drug-related offences and other crimes.
“The Iranian authorities are unleashing a horrifying wave of executions and death sentences to punish and suppress dissent, while projecting an image of strength and absolute control in the wake of the January uprising and amid continuing attacks by US and Israeli forces,” said Heba Morayef, Amnesty International’s regional director for the Middle East and North Africa.
“The muted response from the international community emboldens the Iranian authorities to continue their deadly rampage. UN member states must take urgent, coordinated diplomatic action to press the Iranian authorities to halt further executions.”
It is worth recalling Trump’s message to Iranian protesters on January 13 this year: “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
Those Iranians who took him at his word are likely to feel betrayed by the US president. Stepping up executions – especially by hanging people from cranes in public – suggests the Islamic regime believes it is in no immediate danger of being toppled.
Amnesty said: “Iranian authorities must immediately halt all planned executions and establish an official moratorium on executions with a view to the full abolition of the death penalty.”
