- Ryanair has reduced its annual passenger target by two million to 214 million.
- The airline expects the winter capacity cuts to save between €70m and €100m.
- Ryanair says earnings will fall below last year’s record profit as high fuel costs squeeze margins.
Ryanair is deliberately giving up two million passengers this financial year, not because demand has disappeared, but because some flights are becoming too expensive to operate.
The Irish low-cost airline has cut its passenger target for the year to 214 million from 216 million, saying it will reduce its exposure to expensive jet fuel during the loss-making winter season.
The decision could reduce winter losses by between €70m and €100m.
It is an unusual move for an airline that has traditionally pursued growth through additional capacity and higher passenger numbers. This time, Ryanair is effectively deciding that fewer passengers can be better for the bottom line.
The company said passenger numbers between November and March would be broadly flat compared with the previous year because of the cuts.
Why fuel has changed Ryanair’s calculation
The problem is the cost of the fuel needed to keep those aircraft in the air.
Jet fuel prices surged after the outbreak of the Iran conflict, reaching more than $150 a barrel at points as markets worried about disruptions to energy supplies.
The International Air Transport Association said jet fuel averaged $157 a barrel last week, more than 70 per cent above the $90 level recorded at the start of 2026.
Ryanair is better protected than many airlines because it has already locked in prices for around 80 per cent of its fuel requirements through March at approximately $67 a barrel.
But the remaining 20 per cent is exposed to market prices.
That distinction is important during winter, when demand is traditionally weaker. If airlines have to sell tickets cheaply to fill aircraft while paying sharply higher prices for fuel, adding more flights does not necessarily translate into higher profits.
Ryanair therefore plans to keep its November-to-March capacity broadly unchanged from last year rather than continuing to expand.
The company has described the move as a one-off measure to limit its exposure to unhedged fuel costs.
A profitable airline still expects a weaker year
The cuts come despite Ryanair continuing to carry large numbers of passengers.
The airline carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6 per cent from 21 million a year earlier. Its load factor remained at 96 per cent, showing that aircraft were still operating with very high occupancy.
But higher fuel costs are eating into the financial benefit of that demand.
Ryanair reported first-quarter profit after tax of €538m, down 34 per cent from a year earlier. Its previous financial year produced a record €2.17bn profit.
The airline expects to remain profitable this year but has warned that earnings will fall below that record level.
It has also already begun reducing capacity elsewhere, including removing five aircraft from its base at Charleroi in Belgium and cutting two million seats from its Brussels winter 2026 and summer 2027 schedule.
The immediate strategy is therefore defensive: protect cash, limit exposure to volatile fuel prices and avoid flying capacity that could generate losses.
But there could be a wider consequence.
Ryanair expects European short-haul airlines to struggle to maintain current capacity if oil prices remain high into summer 2027. With fewer seats available, airlines could eventually raise fares and pass more of their fuel costs on to passengers.
For Ryanair, that could turn today's sacrifice into tomorrow's advantage.
By giving up two million passengers now, the airline is betting that protecting its margins through the fuel shock will leave it in a stronger position if competitors are forced to cut even further.
The unusual part is not that Ryanair is facing higher costs. It is that one of Europe's most aggressive growth airlines has decided that the best way to protect profits is to stop chasing passengers.
