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Fitch cuts India’s economic growth forecast to 6.8 per cent

FITCH RATINGS cut India’s economic growth forecast for financial year (FY) 2019-20 to 6.8 per cent from its previous projection of seven per cent. 

"While we have cut our growth forecasts for the next fiscal year on weaker-than-expected momentum, we still see Indian GDP growth to hold up reasonably well, at 6.8 per cent, followed by 7.1 per cent in FY21," Fitch said in its Global Economic Outlook.      


The rating agency has also cut growth forecasts for FY20 and FY21 to 7 per cent from 7.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent from 7.3 per cent, respectively.     

"On the fiscal side, the budget for FY20 plans to increase cash transfers for farmers," Fitch added.       

Fitch noted that, it's benign crude oil price outlook and expectations of accelerating food prices in the coming months should support rural households' income and consumption. 

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Even as inflation rises, unemployment edges up and household costs continue to climb, banks are reporting stronger profits. The latest results from Lloyds Banking Group highlight this contrast, with the lender posting a quarterly pre-tax profit of £2 billion, up 33 per cent year-on-year and ahead of expectations.

The gains come largely from higher interest rates. As borrowing costs rise, banks are able to charge more on loans while keeping deposit rates relatively lower, widening their margins. Lloyds’ net interest margin rose to 3.17 per cent, up from 3.03 per cent a year earlier, reflecting this shift. The bank also upgraded its outlook for net interest income to more than £14.9 billion, pointing to sustained higher rates.

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