- UK airlines may face fuel shortages within five to six weeks if disruption continues.
- Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, putting pressure on global aviation.
- Asian airlines have already cut routes as supply tightens.
Britain’s aviation sector is beginning to feel the ripple effects of the Iran conflict, with growing concern over a potential jet fuel shortage if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through April. The shipping lane, a critical route for global oil flows, has long handled more than a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil, making any prolonged closure difficult for airlines to ignore.
UK carriers are not yet in crisis mode, but there is a sense that the clock may be ticking. Industry estimates suggest airlines have around five to six weeks of fuel reserves before supply constraints could begin to bite. The concern is less about immediate shortages and more about how long the disruption drags on.
While Britain sources oil from a relatively diverse mix compared to parts of Asia, the global nature of fuel markets means no region is entirely insulated. A tightening supply elsewhere tends to push prices up everywhere.
Asia feels it first, Europe watches closely
The first signs of strain are already visible in Asia, where airlines more heavily dependent on Persian Gulf fuel supplies have started adjusting operations. Vietnam Airlines has suspended seven domestic routes and cut back on international services, while Korean Air has moved into what it calls “emergency management mode”.
In Europe, contingency planning is underway. Lufthansa has reportedly prepared for the possibility of grounding aircraft if demand drops suddenly or fuel becomes harder to secure.
Back in the UK, the tone is more cautious than alarmed. Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary reportedly warned there is “a risk of supply disruptions in Europe” from May if energy trade routes are not stabilised, as quoted in a news report. He suggested that between 10 per cent and 25 per cent of supplies could be at risk through May and June.
Even so, a source close to the airline reportedly said there are no immediate concerns. Two major UK airports have also played down fears of near-term disruption.
Prices surge, but airlines buy time
Perhaps the more immediate pressure point is price rather than supply. Jet fuel costs have nearly doubled over the past month, with refined products rising faster than crude oil due to tighter refinery output and pre-existing supply constraints. That pressure is already starting to show in ticket prices and route planning, with airlines adjusting fares and capacity in response to the global squeeze.
For now, many airlines are shielded by long-term hedging contracts, which allow them to lock in fuel prices well in advance. International Airlines Group has reportedly secured 60 to 70 per cent of its fuel at pre-crisis rates for the rest of the year, while Ryanair has locked in about 80 per cent of its supply.
That buffer may explain why airline stocks have remained relatively steady. Shares in major carriers, including easyJet and Wizz Air, moved higher after comments from Donald Trump suggesting US operations in the region could wind down within three weeks, reportedly said during a public appearance.
Industry body Airlines UK maintained that there is currently no disruption to jet fuel supply, adding that airlines continue to monitor the situation closely.
For now, the industry appears to be in a holding pattern. Supplies are intact, contracts are cushioning costs and operations remain stable. But much depends on how events unfold in the coming weeks, and whether a regional conflict begins to reshape global aviation in more lasting ways.
