Senior Conservatives are advising Rishi Sunak, to consider calling for a spring election next year. Campaign strategists within the party believe that this plan is gaining momentum and could potentially help minimise losses in the wake of Thursday's byelections, where the Tories experienced a significant swing against them.
The idea of a spring election, particularly in May 2024, is being seen as an "economic sweet spot" by some insiders, The Guardian reported.
They view this timing as an opportunity for "damage limitation," given the possibility of a more favourable economic picture, with inflation falling faster than expected.
Dan Poulter, the Conservative MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, told Times Radio on Sunday (23) that historical precedents indicate a potential change of government in the next 15 to 18 months unless significant changes occur. He acknowledged that the government is currently in a challenging position and expressed a "slim" chance of victory.
The concept of pursuing a spring election has also been put forth by several individuals, including Daniel Finkelstein, a Conservative peer and former adviser to John Major during the party's devastating defeat in 1997.
Additionally, other prominent figures within parliament and Conservative Central Headquarters have supported the idea.
There is hope that Sunak's aim to halve inflation will be realised by early 2024, which could be a strategic advantage.
Among the perceived advantages of an early election, one is the opportunity for the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to announce intended measures at the spring budget in March 2024, including potential giveaways such as abolishing inheritance tax.
This move could serve as a pre-electoral springboard and a challenge for Keir Starmer's Labour Party to match their financial promises.
Additionally, holding an early election could help the Conservative government avoid potential backlash from rising mortgage payments.
Those on fixed-rate mortgages might start experiencing increased payments as their deals expire, leading to possible blame directed towards the ruling party.
However, views differ within the party regarding the timing of the election.
According to one member of parliament, there are concerns that people who face an increase of £500 per month in their mortgage payments between spring and autumn might hold the ruling party accountable.
The MP believes that opting for an early election could help limit potential damage and hasten their return to power after a period in opposition.
Furthermore, others have raised alarm about forthcoming events on the political calendar. They fear a significant defeat in the May 2024 local elections, followed by ongoing issues with small boats and a potential winter crisis in the NHS as colder months approach.
Divergent opinions exist regarding the timing of the election, which is required to take place by January 2025.
Some individuals advocating for a later date point to concerns about the economy not fully recovering by the next May.
Additionally, they suggest that Sunak may prefer a November election to make substantial progress in clearing the NHS backlog, considering the challenges posed by ongoing strikes.
