A THANKSGIVING letter written to a cabinet minister by GFG Alliance boss Sanjeev Gupta over the sanction of loans has kicked up a fresh controversy in the UK’s Covid assistance scandal.
In 2020, Gupta wrote to Nadhim Zahawi, the business department minister at the time, and appreciated his “instrumental” role in helping Greensill Capital secure the 400 million loans, media reports said.
Greensill was the main backer of Gupta’s metals empire but the finance company collapsed last year and became the subject of an investigation by the Serious Fraud Office.
Zahawi was also invited to join a ‘small gathering’ organised at Liberty Steel’s plant at Rotherham to “mark the special moment”. The steel company is part of GFG.
“Since you were personally instrumental in getting the BBB’s approval for Greensill Capital to provide financial assistance under the [Covid business loan] programme, it would be very fitting if you could join us to mark this special moment that provides relief to thousands of workers,” Gupta is believed to have told Zahawi in the letter.
However, Zahawi, who is now the education secretary, denied the suggestion that he played a role in the sanctions of the loans. He said the letter was “little more than flattery”.
The loans were approved by the BBB (British Business Bank), a state-owned economic development bank.
A reply to a freedom of information request confirmed some sort of communication took place between Gupta and Zahawi, although it did not reveal the date.
“A text exchange or phone call between Sanjeev Gupta and Nadhim Zahawi took place at an unknown date” in relation to “Covid assistance”, The Times reported, referring to the freedom of information replay.
However, Zahawi’s spokesperson said the government was in no way involved in the sanction of the loans.
“The decision was taken independently by the British Business Bank, in accordance with their usual procedures,” the spokesperson said, according to The Times.
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The UK restaurant market is growing, but the recovery is expected to favour larger and premium operators
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UK's £18.7bn restaurant market has one big problem for independents
Jul 31, 2026
- The UK restaurant market is forecast to reach £18.7 billion in 2026.
- Fine dining is expected to lead growth, while independent restaurants continue to lose ground.
- Rising costs and cautious consumer spending are likely to keep pressure on smaller operators.
The UK restaurant market is expected to grow to £18.7 billion in 2026, but the latest industry forecasts suggest the gains will not be shared equally across the sector.
According to Lumina Intelligence's UK Restaurant Market Report, overall market growth is expected despite ongoing pressure from higher operating costs, inflation and cautious consumer spending. While premium restaurants are forecast to perform well, many independent operators are expected to face another difficult year.
The findings point to a restaurant industry where consumer demand remains resilient, but profitability is becoming increasingly dependent on pricing power, operational scale and the type of dining experience being offered.
A two-speed restaurant market is emerging
The report suggests fine dining will be the strongest-performing segment in 2026. Turnover is forecast to grow by 4.1 per cent, while the number of outlets is expected to increase by 2.5 per cent.
Analysts suggest higher-income consumers continue to spend on premium dining experiences despite wider economic uncertainty. Restaurants offering unique experiences, quality ingredients and destination dining appear better placed to attract customers willing to pay more.
The picture is very different for independent restaurants.
The report forecasts a 0.5 per cent decline in turnover among independent operators, alongside a 1.2 per cent fall in outlet numbers. Rising wage costs, food inflation, business rates and other operating expenses continue to squeeze margins, making it harder for smaller businesses to remain profitable.
Industry observers also expect consolidation to continue across the sector, with larger restaurant groups likely to strengthen their position through acquisitions while some independent businesses struggle to keep pace.
Growth continues but challenges remain
Although the overall market is forecast to expand, consumer behaviour continues to evolve.
Many diners are still eating out, but they are becoming more selective about where and how they spend their money. Value remains important, while premium experiences continue to attract customers looking for something beyond a standard meal.
The latest forecast suggests the UK restaurant industry is entering a more polarised phase. Market growth is expected to continue, but operators with strong brands, financial resources and clear customer propositions are likely to benefit the most, while many independent restaurants may continue to face significant financial pressure.
For the industry, the headline £18.7 billion market forecast signals continued demand. However, the report suggests the bigger story lies beneath the numbers, where growth is increasingly concentrated among premium and larger operators rather than being spread evenly across the sector.
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