Highlights:
- BJP leads in West Bengal, set for third straight term in Assam
- Tamil Nadu shows upset as Vijay’s party leads, Stalin trails
- Congress-led alliance ahead in Kerala
- Results may reshape opposition ahead of 2029 general election
INDIAN Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party was on course to win two of four key state elections on Monday, expanding its reach and putting pressure on its main rival midway through his third term.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was set to return to power in Assam for a third straight term and was leading in West Bengal, according to trends on the Election Commission website. Both states border Bangladesh, where infiltration was a key campaign issue.
The BJP has never governed West Bengal, where it had only three lawmakers until 2021.
In West Bengal, counting trends showed the BJP crossing the majority mark, leading in 185 seats in the 294-member assembly, ahead of the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) on 91. The majority mark is 148.
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The party’s push followed weeks of campaigning by Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and other senior leaders, focusing on illegal immigration from Bangladesh and the state’s economy under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Banerjee, who has led the state since 2011 and is a key member of the opposition alliance, was ahead in Bhabanipur by 16,706 votes over BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari after five rounds of counting. In Nandigram, Adhikari was ahead by over 3,135 votes against TMC’s Pabitra Kar after two rounds.
Counting for 293 seats began at 8 am with postal ballots, followed by EVM votes. The Election Commission countermanded polling in Falta in South 24 Parganas, citing “severe electoral offences and subversion of the democratic process”.
Trends indicated the BJP leading across several regions, including border, tribal and industrial areas, while the TMC held leads in parts of Kolkata and some rural areas. Early figures showed BJP’s vote share at around 44.8 per cent and TMC’s at about 41.7 per cent.
Several TMC leaders were trailing. In Dinhata, Udayan Guha was behind BJP’s Ajay Ray by 6,259 votes after four rounds. In Sabang, Manas Ranjan Bhunia trailed BJP’s Amal Kumar Panda after three rounds. In Kolkata, BJP’s Purnima Chakraborty was ahead of TMC’s Shashi Panja by 1,430 votes. In Monteswar, BJP’s Saikat Panja led Siddiqullah Chowdhury by 13,308 votes, and in Asansol Dakshin, Agnimitra Paul led by 18,812 votes. Assembly Speaker Biman Banerjee was trailing in Baruipur Paschim.
The BJP was also ahead in constituencies including Dinhata, Gosaba, Baghmundi, Bankura, Durgapur Purba, Binpur, Nayagram, Rajganj and Bhagwangola. The TMC was leading in areas such as Deganga, Kasba, Ballygunge, Bhabanipur, Entally, Singur, Raina, Jamalpur, Khandaghosh, Sitai, Malatipur and Mothabari. The CPI(M) was ahead in Domkal, while the ISF led in Minakhan. Humayun Kabir of the Aam Janata Unnayan Party was leading in Nowda.
Officials said trends could change as counting progressed.
The trend in West Bengal also affected markets, with the 10-year bond yield down 2 basis points at 6.9954 per cent, traders said.
In Tamil Nadu, actor C. Joseph Vijay, who launched his party two years ago, was leading and looked set to unseat the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). Chief Minister M. K. Stalin was trailing, according to early trends.
Vijay, who leads the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, has a large following in the state, which has a history of electing film actors.
In Kerala, a Congress-led alliance was ahead of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and looked set to form the government.
The DMK and the TMC are key members of the Congress-led INDIA alliance, which fought the 2024 general election and denied Modi an outright majority, forcing him to rely on regional parties to form a government.
Losses in these states could weaken the opposition ahead of the 2029 general election, where Modi is expected to seek a fourth term.
Counting took place under tight security across states including Assam and the union territory of Puducherry, where the BJP is part of the ruling coalition.
Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said, “The entire country has its eyes on this state's election results. The contest can tilt the balance of power.”
Banerjee said before counting, “The BJP is not coming, take my word for it. Be patient till the last.”
West Bengal BJP chief Samik Bhattacharya said, “It was an election of rejection. People of the state want change. The ruling Trinamool Congress will be defeated.”
Omar Abdullah said a BJP win in West Bengal and gains in Tamil Nadu would be a “political earthquake”.
“The aftershocks of these results will be felt far and wide for a long time,” he said, adding they could extend to the 2029 general election.
Final results were expected by Monday evening, though no immediate impact on federal policy was anticipated.
(With inputs from agencies)
