DEATHS are projected to exceed births in the UK every year from 2026, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The ONS said the UK population will grow more slowly than previously expected, reaching 71 million by 2034 due to lower migration. Declining fertility rates mean fewer children, while the number of pensioners is expected to rise faster than the working-age population.
The population is now projected to peak in the 2050s before declining, ONS head of household and population projections James Robards said. The UK population is expected to increase by 1.7 million in the 10 years after 2024, the BBC reported.
Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, 6.4 million births and 6.9 million deaths are projected, with 7.3 million long-term immigrants and 5.1 million emigrants. Deaths are expected to outnumber births by nearly half a million.
The ONS said the figures are projections and could change depending on future trends.
Net migration is expected to add 2.2 million people over the decade. Dr Madeleine Sumption of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory said the post-Brexit peak is now treated as a “blip”, the BBC reported. A Home Office spokesperson said: "we must go further to reduce the levels of migration."
By 2034, pensioners are expected to make up a fifth of the population, with their numbers rising by 1.8 million compared with a 1.5 million increase in working-age people. The number of children is projected to fall by 1.6 million, the BBC reported.
A House of Lords report said young people would be most affected by an ageing population. Stuart McDonald of LCP said the trend will add pressure on the NHS, pensions and public finances. Sarah Scobie of the Nuffield Trust said services are “ill-prepared for an increase in deaths”.
