Strictly Come Dancing 2025 finale: Who is most likely to win on Saturday night?

Highlights:

• Strictly Come Dancing 2025 reaches its BBC One final on Saturday 20 December.
• Karen Carney is odds-on to win, with George Clarke second favourite and Amber Davies an outsider.
• Each finalist performs three dances, including a showdance.
• Bookmakers give Carney more than a 70 per cent chance of lifting the trophy.
• The final marks Tess Daly and Claudia Winkleman’s last show together.

The Strictly Come Dancing 2025 final arrives on Saturday, with three names left on the call sheet, three showdances in rehearsal rooms, and a tight betting market placing former England footballer Karen Carney at the front. In a year that has lost contestants to injury, nerves, and the usual Saturday jeopardy, the programme has kept a simple through-line: steady improvement still counts. Carney’s name sits at the top of the lists, while social media performer George Clarke chases, and late-entry Amber Davies gets ready for a swing at the title.

Strictly Come Dancing 2025: who actually wins tomorrow night? Instagram/strictlyfm

Why Strictly Come Dancing 2025 now favours Carney

Carney entered the programme as a long shot. Some bookmakers had her at 16/1 at the start. Twelve weeks later, she is listed at 2/5 and carries an implied probability above 70 per cent. Her run has rested on two factors: visible weekly gains and strong backing from home voters.

The semi-final told its own story. Carney and her partner Carlos Gu topped the board with 78 across two dances. Bookmakers responded by shortening her odds and moving her into the position of likely winner. She also has the storyline that Strictly voters tend to follow: early awkwardness, a technical fix, and relaxed performance by week ten.

Saturday gives her a showdance to Texas’s Inner Smile, an Argentine Tango to Red Right Hand by Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds, and a Jive to a song by Blondie. If she lands all three, a finish outside first place would surprise most analysts.

How George Clarke stays in the race

The next name in the Strictly Come Dancing 2025 race is George Clarke. He began the season knowing little about ballroom. The TikTok and YouTube audience followed, though, and he has not been in a dance-off once.

William Hill currently lists him at 15/8. Other firms go shorter. His path resembles Joe Sugg’s 2018 run: the online crowd gave momentum, judges delivered solid mid-table marks, and personality did the rest. Clarke has never received a perfect 40, yet he has not dipped below the standard needed to survive.

His final dances include a show routine to Human by The Killers, a Viennese Waltz to Queen’s Somebody to Love, and a Paso set to Game of Survival. If the public swing heavily, Clarke could close the gap.

Amber Davies still in contention but far behind

Davies sits as the outsider in the Strictly Come Dancing 2025 betting boards. Some firms mark her at 20/1, others longer. Her numbers on the floor are sharp: three perfect 40s in the last four routines. The concern for bettors is her two dance-offs.

Davies joined late, stepping in after Dani Dyer suffered an injury. She has West End training, a theatre voice, and knows live television. What she lacks is a narrative of struggle. Voters often pick the journey rather than the technician. Saturday’s showdance is set to Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande’s Rain On Me, backed up by an Aerosmith Paso and a Proud Mary Jive.

What decides the winner on the night

The BBC will run the full result live on Saturday evening from 7pm. There will be no delayed Sunday close. The votes and judges’ marks combine once, and the Glitterball leaves with one name.

Bookmakers see a two-way finish. Clarke keeps a path open if younger voters push a final wave. Davies needs a standout moment. Carney has the balance sheet that tends to seal finals: improvement, consistency, and a large audience from sports television.

Strictly Come Dancing has faced a series of scandals in recent years including drug and bullying allegations BBC

When the music stops, one of the three will be applauding the others. Then the lights drop, Daly and Winkleman sign off, and the floor resets for another year.