PRIME MINISTER Keir Starmer confronts a pivotal year ahead with elections in May 2026 set to determine whether he survives in office, according to an analysis by the BBC.
According to the report, May 7 represents "the fulcrum of the political year ahead", when voters go to the polls for the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments and numerous English councils—contests that could have "huge consequences" for Starmer's career prospects.
The assessment comes just 18 months after Starmer led Labour to a landslide 174-seat majority, making the speculation about his future "extraordinary".
The prime minister himself acknowledged before Christmas that talk about his position was "pretty rife", though he said it with a smile while appearing before MPs. One senior Labour figure confirmed to the BBC that campaigning to replace Starmer was happening.
The prospect of major defeats in May is driving much of the internal anxiety. Labour currently governs in the Welsh Parliament and runs many urban English councils holding elections. Some party members worry that waiting until after the polls will mean losing councillors and devolved parliament members who form the backbone of local campaigns.
Wales presents perhaps the gravest challenge. The mood in Welsh Labour is "beyond bleak", BBC's political editor Chris Mason wrote, as the party contemplates losing devolved power for the first time since 1999.
The situation is complicated by "double incumbency"—Labour governing in both Cardiff and Westminster—making it harder to blame others for failures. Plaid Cymru nationalists are increasingly confident, while Reform UK also appears competitive.
In London, Labour controls 21 of 32 councils facing elections. "May looks really rough," one senior Labour figure said, pointing to threats from Reform in outer boroughs, Greens in areas like Hackney, and Gaza-focused independents in places such as Redbridge.
The BBC analysis identified health secretary Wes Streeting as the name "spoken of most widely" as a potential successor, alongside Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, home secretary Shabana Mahmood and others.
Starmer's supporters are urging colleagues to "hold our nerve" and arguing that stability matters, that he holds the electoral mandate, and that any successor would inherit the same underlying problems.
Mason pointed out that Labour historically shows less ruthlessness than the Conservatives in removing leaders, and that the prime minister himself is "nothing if not determined".
The government plans a burst of public activity early in the new year, including increased use of social media and interviews with influencers alongside traditional media.
The message will centre on 2026 being the year people begin feeling the "change" Labour promised, with emphasis on cost of living.
Mason noted that leading a UK government over the past decade has offered "vanishingly little job security", with Starmer the sixth prime minister in 10 years.
Factors including Brexit, the pandemic, stagnant living standards, European conflict, the breadth of viable parties and social media have all contributed to shortening leaders' shelf lives.
