5 MLB Betting Mistakes You Need to Avoid at All Costs
Eastern Eye Staff
The MLB regular season just finished a few weeks ago, and the victory of the Texas Rangers is still fresh on our minds. In just a few months, the regular season will begin. However, before we delve into that, let’s figure out some of the mistakes you might have made in the past season.
As we all know, by reviewing past mistakes, we’ll avoid doing them again in the future, and that saying also applies to MLB betting. That said, here are some mistakes that you need to avoid as an MLB bettor.
Believing in Old Trends
The costly habit of many MLB bettors, especially veterans, is that they follow the reputation of an old starting pitcher who lost some of their velocity on their fastball. Sure, they have been a threat during their heydays, but even superstars lose their shine over time.
As a bettor, you must eliminate their performance last year and focus on their current forms. In short, trends don’t last in MLB, so be warned. The past trends and stats mean too little in the current season.
Home Field Advantage
Many bettors usually believe that the home-field advantage is the be-all-end-all factor in games, especially in big ones. While the team’s friendly crowd and familiarity with the field is a general help, that doesn’t mean they will win the game. The most significant home-field advantages usually lie in FIFA and the NFL, which means it’s not a big deal in MLB.
Experts believe that home teams win around 50% of their games, with that number jumping up and down, especially during the postseason, but the difference doesn’t usually go above 5%. Another thing you should remember when it comes to home teams is that the lack of at-bats in the bottom of the ninth, if the team is winning, can significantly affect the run line and the totals.
Playing Too Many Favorites
A lot of newbie MLB bettors are usually guilty of this one. When they see a favorite with an inflated line, they usually believe they are guaranteed a win, so they bet on it, hoping they are right. They will then have a research spree filled with confirmation bias, another mistake many bettors make. After the research, they suddenly have the resolve that they made the right bet, which turns out to be a mistake.
If you want to break this habit, you should look closer at the league table. You will see how “bad” teams win 40% of their games, which gives them a significant value in betting, and how “great” teams do not win their games 70% of the time.
This means that in baseball, underdog betting is usually the way to go if you want to profit a lot. The best thing about underdog betting is that you don’t need to win many bets to break even with your losses. You risk too little compared to your potential payout if you win your bets.
MLB is about riding the streaks. Even “bad” teams have their chance now and then and will go on to have a winning streak for a few weeks. However, when they see a team win twice in a row, bad bettors will then bet on that team to lose on their next one.
This is a wrong decision to do so since streaks usually last long in the MLB. So what should you do? It’s simple: ride the streak until things go south. Jumping on the bandwagon is the most efficient way to profit from said streaks, so if you see one, try to ride on them as long as possible. Their streaks might not affect their odds to make playoffs, but they could still give you a great chance to profit.
Concentrating Too Much on High-Scoring Teams
People usually believe that a high-scoring team usually wins, but as mentioned earlier, teams that score high don’t guarantee a win. We all love home runs, but they’re not a sure sign that the team who did more home runs will win the game.
High-scoring teams usually have inflated lines, which is a good sign that you should go against the grain and fade the public. It’s a simple but effective way to profit significantly during these games.
The MLB season just ended, but that doesn’t mean you can take it easy. This is because this is the perfect time to review your performance during the past season and try to improve your next one in the upcoming season. You know what they say: studying past mistakes is an effective way of avoiding them in the future. And who knows, maybe studying the mistakes that are discussed above will make you a thousand dollars richer in the 2024 MLB season.