- UK produces only 54 per cent of the food it consumes.
- Just nine retailers control over 94 per cent of food sales.
- Climate change and supply disruptions could worsen risks.
The UK government should be building emergency food stockpiles, according to a leading food policy expert who warned that the country is not prepared for disruptions caused by wars, cyber-attacks or climate shocks.
Prof Tim Lang of City St George’s, University of London said the UK’s current food security position leaves the country vulnerable because it produces far less food than it consumes. As a densely populated island nation dependent on a handful of major retailers and complex supply chains, even small disruptions could quickly ripple across the system.
The UK Food Security Report published in December 2021 found the country was only 54 per cent self-sufficient in food production. In simple terms, that means nearly half of what people eat in Britain depends on imports.
That level of dependence stands in contrast with several other developed countries. Nations such as the US, France and Australia are considered food self-sufficient, producing enough to feed their populations if imports were cut off. Even densely populated countries in Europe are better placed. The Netherlands produces about 80 per cent of its food, while Spain sits at roughly 75 per cent.
Lang said the risks are not receiving enough attention. “We’re not thinking about this adequately. We’re ducking it,” he reportedly said while speaking at the National Farmers’ Union conference in Birmingham.
He added that the UK has long assumed other countries will continue supplying its food. “The default position that others can feed us is hardwired into the British state system,” Lang reportedly said, adding that what the country celebrates as efficiency in food supply chains has increasingly become a vulnerability.
Other countries maintain emergency reserves to deal with crises such as war or supply disruptions. Switzerland, for example, keeps stockpiles capable of feeding its population for about three months and is reportedly expanding that to a full year. In contrast, the UK government advises households to keep roughly three days’ worth of food at home.
Environment secretary Emma Reynolds has indicated the government does not plan to set a specific target for national food self-sufficiency. She said she would like to see domestic production increase in areas such as horticulture and poultry but declined to commit to a percentage figure, as quoted in a news report.
A fragile network behind supermarket shelves
Lang’s research suggests the UK food system may be more fragile than it appears.
The country’s 12,284 supermarkets rely on just 131 distribution centres to keep shelves stocked. According to Lang, such concentration creates potential weak points if facilities are disrupted.
Nine major retailers account for about 94.5 per cent of retail food sales in the UK. Tesco alone supplies nearly a third of the market through around 20 distribution centres.
“In drone war, that’s a sitting duck,” Lang reportedly said, referring to the risk that cyber attacks or physical disruptions could halt food distribution.
His report for the National Preparedness Commission suggested that if even one or two major supermarket groups experienced serious disruption, the impact could be felt quickly across the country.
At the same time, civil defence spending related to emergency preparedness appears relatively small. Lang’s analysis found that in 2021-22, the UK allocated the equivalent of just 0.0026 per cent of total defence spending to civil defence measures related to crises affecting the population.
Climate and trade pressures adding to the strain
Several other factors may further complicate the UK’s food security outlook.
Brexit has changed trading relationships with the European Union, the country’s largest food supplier. A University of Sussex analysis found agrifood imports from the EU fell by an average of 8.71 per cent a year in the three years following January 2021 compared with the previous three-year period.
Meanwhile, climate change is increasingly affecting agricultural output in regions that supply much of the UK’s fresh produce, particularly southern Europe and north Africa.
The UK currently imports more than 80 per cent of its fruit and over half of its vegetables. Supply disruptions are already visible at times. In 2023, poor weather in Spain and north Africa contributed to shortages of salad and fresh vegetables in British supermarkets.
The UK Health Security Agency has warned that if current trends in land use, climate and agriculture continue, the country may rely heavily on imports from climate-vulnerable regions by 2050. The agency said as much as 52 per cent of legumes and 47 per cent of fruit could be sourced from such areas.
Lang believes the current “just-in-time” supply system — designed to minimise costs and waste — may not be resilient enough for a world facing more frequent shocks.
“The purpose of food systems is to feed people,” he reportedly said, arguing that the UK should focus on building greater resilience rather than relying purely on efficiency.
He has called for a new food security and resilience law to ensure the system can cope with future disruptions and to encourage greater domestic food production.
