- Oil rises more than 3 per cent as tensions intensify
- Asian markets fall sharply amid global uncertainty
- Analysts warn prices could surge further if disruption continues
Global oil prices climbed sharply on March 30, with Brent crude crossing £86 ($115) a barrel as the US–Israel conflict with Iran entered its fifth week. US-traded crude also moved higher, reaching around £76 ($101.62).
The spike is being driven largely by fears of supply disruption in West Asia, especially around the Strait of Hormuz — a key route that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. With flows through the strait now heavily restricted, markets are reacting fast.
Equity markets across Asia reflected that nervousness. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2.8 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi closed nearly 3 per cent lower.
Tensions widen beyond the core conflict
The situation escalated over the weekend after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen reportedly struck Israel. Iran also signalled it could expand its retaliation, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict.
US President Donald Trump, in an interview with the Financial Times, suggested the US could take control of Iran’s oil assets, including the major hub at Kharg Island. He reportedly said the site may not have strong defences.
At the same time, Iran’s parliamentary leadership warned its forces were “waiting for American soldiers,” as more US troops were deployed to the region.
A bigger surge still on the table
Analysts say the speed of the recent oil rally has been faster than in many past geopolitical crises. Beyond actual supply risks, strong political messaging is adding to uncertainty.
According to Macquarie Group, oil could climb as high as £150 ($200) per barrel if the conflict stretches into June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
There are mixed expectations on how long this may last. Some analysts reportedly believe the situation could ease by the end of March, while others see a prolonged standoff into the second quarter.
For India, the impact could be immediate. Higher crude prices tend to push up LPG subsidy costs, with estimates suggesting that every $1 increase per barrel adds roughly ₹33 billion to the burden.
For now, markets remain volatile, with oil prices closely tied to how the conflict unfolds in the coming weeks.
