- Food bills are climbing again after four months of relief.
- Energy market jitters could add further strain, economists suggest.
- Online shopping hits its highest share of grocery sales since 2021.
Supermarket shoppers felt an unwelcome shift in February as grocery inflation ticked higher, raising fresh questions about the cost of living and the impact of Middle East tensions on energy prices.
New figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show grocery price inflation rose to 4.3 per cent in the four weeks to February 22, up from 4 per cent in January. That follows four consecutive months of easing food price growth, after inflation stood at 4.7 per cent in December.
For households hoping the worst of grocery inflation had passed, the reversal may feel uncomfortable, particularly as global energy markets remain unsettled.
Energy fears cast a long shadow
The wider concern is not just about food. The European Central Bank’s chief economist, Philip Lane, warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East could disrupt oil and gas supplies, potentially triggering a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output” across the eurozone, as quoted in a news report.
He reportedly said that a jump in energy prices would push inflation higher in the near term and weigh negatively on growth. Any sustained rise in oil and gas costs would likely spill over into the UK, increasing petrol prices and adding pressure to household gas and electricity bills.
Energy markets have already reacted sharply to the crisis. If those higher wholesale costs feed through to consumers, food producers and retailers could face fresh cost pressures, which might limit how far grocery inflation can fall in the months ahead.
Chocolate up, pancakes flying off shelves
At the tills, shoppers are already noticing some categories remain stubbornly expensive. Chocolate prices were 9.3 per cent higher year on year in the run-up to Easter. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said inflation in chocolate is easing and is at its lowest level since September 2025, as quoted in a news report. Still, prices remain elevated.
Seasonal events gave retailers a lift. Sales of pre-made pancake mixes jumped 114 per cent in the week leading up to Shrove Tuesday. Those making pancakes from scratch paid 42p more than last year for key ingredients, taking the total to £7.77. Flour sales rose 34 per cent, sugar climbed 17 per cent and lemons surged 70 per cent.
Valentine’s Day spending followed a familiar pattern. Nearly 12 per cent of households picked up a premium meal deal on the Friday evening alone. In the week before February 14, shoppers spent £39m on meal deals priced at £10 or more, seven times higher than the previous week. Steak and chocolate sales both peaked at the last minute.
There are mixed signals from businesses. Bakery chain Greggs pointed to “easing inflationary pressures” as quoted in a news report, suggesting this could help consumer spending, even as it reported a near 18 per cent fall in pre-tax profits to £167.4m for the year to December 27.
Online grocery shopping keeps growing
One of the clearest shifts is happening online. Internet grocery sales rose 9.7 per cent year on year. More than 18 million orders were placed over the four weeks to February 22, meaning online accounted for 13 per cent of total grocery sales, the highest share since July 2021.
McKevitt said more affluent families in London and the south-east remain the most likely to shop online, as quoted in a news report. However, he noted that shoppers from a broader range of economic backgrounds are increasingly drawn to its convenience.
Among retailers, Ocado was the fastest-growing grocer over the 12 weeks to February 22, with sales up 15.1 per cent and a market share of 2.1 per cent. Lidl recorded its 12th consecutive month of double-digit growth, up 10 per cent, lifting its market share to 7.8 per cent.
Tesco increased sales by 4.5 per cent, raising its market share to 28.5 per cent. Sainsbury’s grew sales by 5.2 per cent, taking its share to 16.1 per cent. Waitrose posted its strongest growth rate since March 2021 at 5.6 per cent, pushing its share to 4.8 per cent, a three-year high.
Not everyone fared as well. Asda’s sales fell 2.6 per cent year on year, while Co-op saw a 1.6 per cent decline.
With grocery inflation edging back up and energy risks hovering in the background, the coming months could prove delicate for both retailers and households. Much may depend on whether global tensions ease or deepen, and how quickly energy markets settle.
