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Climate change could push millions into physical inactivity by 2050, study finds

Lancet study warns heat will undermine global exercise targets as India faces rising inactivity deaths

climate change impact

The WHO recommends adults aged 18–64 get at least 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise weekly

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Highlights

  • Climate change could drive millions into physical inactivity by 2050 causing up to 700,000 extra deaths a year.
  • India is projected to see a mortality rate of 10.62 deaths per 100,000 population due to physical inactivity by 2050.
  • Rising temperatures could alone undermine the WHO target of cutting physical inactivity by 15 per cent by 2030.
Rising temperatures caused by climate change could stop millions of people around the world from exercising by 2050, leading to up to 700,000 extra deaths every year and $3.68 bn in lost productivity, a new study in The Lancet Global Health journal has found.
Researchers warned that heat alone could get in the way of the World Health Organisation's goal of cutting physical inactivity around the world by 15 per cent by 2030.

The study looked at data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022 to work out how rising temperatures could affect how much people exercise up to 2050.

It found that every extra month where the average temperature goes above 27.8 degrees Celsius would make physical inactivity go up by 1.5 percentage points around the world and by 1.85 percentage points in poorer countries.


India is expected to see 10.62 deaths per 100,000 people linked to physical inactivity by 2050 across three different future scenarios.

Heat stops exercise

In some hot and humid parts of the world the heat during the hottest hours of the day already makes it unsafe to do anything more active than sitting or lying down according to a separate study.

Physical inactivity is already a big problem around the world with one in three adults not getting enough exercise.

The WHO says adults between 18 and 64 should do at least 150 minutes of moderate exercise or 75 minutes of harder exercise every week.

Researchers said governments need to act fast. They called for heat warnings to be added to exercise advice and for cooled sports facilities to be made available for people most at risk.

They also want more shaded walking and cycling routes and stronger rules to protect workers from heat.

"Physical inactivity needs to be treated as a climate-sensitive necessity rather than a lifestyle choice," the authors said.

Without action they warned of a big rise in heart and metabolic diseases and serious damage to economies around the world.

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