- One pub shut permanently every day in England and Wales in 2025
- 540 more closures expected this year, industry modelling shows
- Drinks prices set to rise from April as suppliers pass on costs
After years of rising costs, a fresh increase in alcohol duty from February 1 is set to land on a sector already operating on wafer-thin margins. The rise, approved by MPs under the government’s Finance Bill following chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget, adds to what many in the industry describe as a toxic mix of higher taxes, wages and overheads.
The numbers underline the scale of the problem. Analysis of government data by tax specialists at Ryan shows that one pub a day closed permanently in England and Wales during 2025. Modelling by UKHospitality suggests the pace is unlikely to slow, with another 540 pubs forecast to shut this year.
“Very low margins, if any at all”
MPs across parties have begun sounding the alarm. Labour MP Jacob Collier reportedly said years of rising costs have left many venues operating on “very low margins, if any at all”. Another Labour MP, Gareth Snell, pointed to a brewer in his constituency facing a 450 per cent jump in business rates, urging the government to come up with a workable solution.
The concern extends beyond Westminster. Liberal Democrat MP Calum Miller reportedly said many pubs in his Bicester and Woodstock constituency have already shut, leaving towns and villages without what he described as a key community institution. Conservative MP Sir Edward Leigh warned that proposed changes to drink-driving limits could further threaten rural pubs, noting that many customers have no choice but to travel by car.
On July 9, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said business rates needed rebalancing and backed targeted relief for the high street, particularly pubs.
Higher prices, weaker confidence
While policy debates continue, price rises are already filtering through. The Morning Advertiser has reported that drinks prices will increase from April, with suppliers passing on higher costs. Changes from Diageo are expected to push the price of a pint of Guinness up by about 4p, while a 70cl bottle of Smirnoff vodka will rise by 13p on list price.
Business confidence is sliding in parallel. A survey published by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales shows sentiment turned its most pessimistic in three years by the end of 2025, with confidence dropping further after the November budget.
Treasury minister Lucy Rigby told MPs on July 9 that the government wants pubs to thrive and would work with the sector on support measures, including business rates. She defended the alcohol duty rise, reportedly arguing that extending the freeze would mainly benefit supermarkets rather than hospitality venues.
The longer-term picture remains bleak. Figures from the British Beer and Pub Association show more than 15,000 pubs closed between 2000 and 2024. In a July 10, 2025 report, the body warned that hundreds more venues were at risk, with thousands of jobs hanging in the balance.
For many operators, the question is no longer about growth or recovery. It is simply about whether keeping the doors open is still possible.
