- UK exporters could face up to £3 billion ($4 billion) in extra costs.
- Analysts say Britain may be among the hardest hit by the tariff reset.
- Allies risk losing their edge as global rates move to 15 per cent.
The UK could be among the countries hardest hit if US President Donald Trump pushes ahead with a proposed 15 per cent global tariff, with analysts warning the move may significantly raise costs for British exporters and weaken the country’s trade position.
The latest US tariff developments have created fresh uncertainty for the UK, which had previously secured a lower 10 per cent tariff arrangement with Washington. That relative advantage now risks disappearing if the higher global rate comes into force, potentially reshaping trade flows between the two countries.
Analysis suggests the change could increase costs on UK exports to the US by as much as £3 billion ($4 billion) and affect roughly 40,000 businesses, highlighting the scale of the potential impact on Britain’s export sector.
Advantage at risk
The proposed tariff follows a turbulent period in US trade policy after the US Supreme Court struck down several tariffs imposed during the earlier global trade dispute, ruling that the administration had exceeded its authority. In response, Trump announced a fresh global tariff, initially set at 10 per cent before being revised to 15 per cent.
The UK had benefited from a lower reciprocal rate, which placed it in a relatively favourable position compared with some other trading partners. However, analysis by Global Trade Alert suggests Britain could now face one of the largest increases in tariff exposure if the new rate is applied broadly.
Andy Haldane, president of the British Chambers of Commerce, reportedly said the UK would “sit towards the bottom of league table” of trade partners if the tariff changes take effect, reflecting concerns that allies could end up at a disadvantage.
Cabinet minister Bridget Phillipson reportedly said the government was holding discussions with US officials to ensure Britain’s national interests are clearly represented as negotiations continue.
Global shifts in the trade order
While the UK could face higher effective tariffs, countries such as China, India and Brazil appear likely to see relative gains, as their rates would fall compared with previous levels. Analysts suggest this could alter the competitive balance across global markets.
US trade representative Jamieson Greer reportedly said trade agreements negotiated with allies would still stand and were not dependent on the legal challenges surrounding earlier tariffs, signalling Washington expects partners to honour existing deals.
Sector-specific tariffs covering industries such as steel, aluminium, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and aerospace are not affected by the new global rate, meaning a significant portion of UK trade may still fall under separate arrangements.
The European Commission has also called on the US to respect existing trade commitments, warning that agreements should be honoured, while European lawmakers are considering whether to pause progress on a broader trade deal until more clarity emerges.
Taken together, the developments suggest Britain could face a period of heightened uncertainty in its trade relationship with the US, particularly if the proposed tariff proceeds without exemptions, potentially putting pressure on exporters already navigating a challenging global environment.