- 43,937 new homes built between 2022 and 2024 face medium or high flood risk.
- Around 26 per cent of new homes have some level of flooding exposure.
- Insurance payouts for flood damage are rising sharply across the UK.
Around one in nine new homes in England built between 2022 and 2024 were constructed in areas that could now face flooding risk, according to new analysis from insurer Aviva. The flood risk new homes data highlights growing concern about where housing is being built as the government pushes ahead with plans to expand supply.
Of the 396,602 new homes recorded by Ordnance Survey during the period, about 43,937 are located in areas classed as having medium or high flood risk, while roughly 26 per cent face some level of exposure. The figures suggest the share of homes built in vulnerable locations is rising, compared with earlier analysis showing one in 13 new homes built between 2013 and 2022 were in potential flood zones.
The research comes as pressure builds on the government to deliver more affordable housing while dealing with the growing impact of climate change.
Emma Howard Boyd, former chair of the Environment Agency who advises Aviva on climate policy, reportedly said the target to build 1.5 million homes during this parliament could increase pressure to build in higher-risk areas, as quoted in a news report. She added that housing and environment departments need to work closely together to avoid creating homes that become increasingly vulnerable to flooding over time, as quoted in a news report.
Aviva’s projections suggest the risk could intensify. By 2050, about one in seven homes built between 2022 and 2024 could face medium or high flood risk, while nearly 30 per cent may face some form of flooding exposure as extreme rainfall becomes more common.
Rising costs and growing warnings
The government reportedly said the analysis does not fully account for existing flood defences, though Aviva disputed this, saying its modelling does include such measures, as quoted in a news report. Experts have also warned that some major defences, including those protecting London, may need upgrades to keep pace with changing risks.
Regional data shows Greater London and Essex have the highest share of new at-risk homes at around 32 per cent, followed by Lincolnshire, East Yorkshire and parts of the west and north-west at about 13 per cent. The east of England recorded the lowest share at around 2 per cent.
Insurance industry concerns are also growing as flood risks increase. The Association of British Insurers reported that domestic flood claims rose by 38 per cent to £312 million, while the average payout climbed by 60 per cent to around £30,000. Across the year, insurers paid out £1.2 billion for weather-related property claims, up 14 per cent from the previous year.
Jason Storah, chief executive of UK and Ireland general insurance at Aviva, reportedly said too many new homes are still being built in higher-risk areas and warned that homes built after 2009 are not covered by the Flood Re scheme, as quoted in a news report. He added that planning rules should include stronger safeguards and flood resilience measures, particularly in areas prone to surface water flooding, as quoted in a news report.
A government spokesperson reportedly said the figures are misleading and insisted the plan to build 1.5 million homes will not compromise safety, pointing to £10.5 billion of investment in flood projects expected to benefit nearly 900,000 properties by 2036, as quoted in a news report.
Taken together, the data adds to a growing debate about how the UK balances the need for more housing with the realities of a changing climate and rising insurance risks.
