It may seem that India is a long way away from the cloudy shores of the UK as a potential no-deal Brexit looms but there will still likely be effects felt in the country. The majority of negative implications will occur in Europe as Britain renegotiates its position on the world stage and the simmering tensions continue throughout the continent, such as striking Eurostar workers who may be affected by Brexit. But, India is likely to see some impact from any kind of Brexit and it may even open the doors for further trade deals and a flood of products to and from the countries. So, how will India be affected by Brexit?
As the Brexit timeline shows, the British economy can almost be tied directly to major movements in the unfolding Brexit situation. Theresa May’s initial deal saw a rise in the pound, while the constant knockbacks have seen the value of the British currency dip. Indeed, the FTSE 100 live is a good way of measuring in real terms each ripple of the Brexit pond. The FTSE 100 monitors businesses’ values around political issues like Brexit and can help us analyze exactly how the British economy has been affected by Brexit – before Brexit has actually properly happened. As the FTSE live shows, a number of factors can affect how a business is valued based on its market capitalization on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), but patterns can emerge which will enable us to consider what might happen on March 29 2019 and in the months following. Indian businesses can use this to see where they might be able to take advantage of issues involving trade with the European bloc and how they could benefit India.
For one, India may see a growth in the export of fruits and vegetables after Brexit. During 2017-2018, India exported fresh vegetables valued at Rs 168 crore, with 30-50 tons shipped to London daily. However, during the summer, this figure dips by about 20% due to the competition from fruit and vegetables grown in Southern Europe. Should a no-deal Brexit leave tariffs on exporting to Britain looking unfavorable for those Southern European countries affected, India could see a lack of competition, so be able to increase its own exports. However, the levies on air freight and other costs involved suggest to some that the economy of India won’t be majorly affected should they monopolize the fruit into London. India is a huge exporter of fresh fruit and vegetables and Brexit indications and calls to stockpile have intonated that the fresh fruit and vegetables will be what we see missing from shelves when Britain exits the European Union.
Unlike so many predictable political movements, Brexit has proved to be particularly prickly and volatile, and economists have braced for the worst case scenario. Although, the worst case scenario for Britain and Southern Europe may end up being the best possible situation for India. As one nation falls under the weight of its own decision, another may come forth and benefit, as has happened numerous times throughout history.